The Green Bay Packers host the Atlanta Falcons in a fun Week 3 Thursday Night Football battle. Make sure you head over to our Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
Falcons vs. Packers Analysis
After Sunday’s loss to the Panthers, I was ready to fade the Falcons in teasers and moneyline parlays. Cooper Rush just couldn’t have possibly looked worse under center, throwing four picks in two games and finishing with a QBR of 5.2 in those outings.
We could see a very different Atlanta team moving forward. Tua Tagovailoa isn’t yet ready to return from an oblique injury, but Michael Penix Jr. will start this Thursday game. Penix is coming off a torn ACL, so we don’t know how he’ll look here. However, after throwing for 1,982 yards with nine touchdowns and three picks last season, he’s clearly an upgrade over Rush. That said, Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski should be able to actually run the offense he’s hoping to run.
If the Atlanta offense looks half decent, we might see a competitive game here. While it has only been two weeks, the Falcons are a top-10 team in the league when looking at EPA/Play Allowed (-0.108), and the run defense has been stout.
The Falcons haven’t played any explosive backfields, but they gave up 58 total rushing yards against the Steelers. They followed that up by allowing only 68 total rushing yards against the Panthers.
That’ll be interesting to watch in Week 3, as the Packers are missing Josh Jacobs and have looked awful on the ground. And picking up nothing in the running game makes life much tougher on Jordan Love and the passing game.
This just feels like a game in which the Falcons will be able to contain the Packers, even with this being a Green Bay team that is playing its home opener — and can really use a strong performance after a slow start to the season. Also, for what it’s worth, Circa Sports betting splits show roughly 80 percent of the tickets have come in on the Packers here. However, the line is holding strong at Green Bay -6.5, as sharper money is hitting Atlanta.
A few trends also stand out when looking at this game. While Stefanski was with the lowly Browns before taking the Falcons job, he’s 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 against the spread in Thursday games in his career.
Also, while the Packers are 10-5 SU after two-game road trips under Matt LaFleur, they’re just 7-8 ATS in those games. They’re also 15-17-1 SU and 13-20 ATS when coming off a non-conference game.
Falcons vs. Packers player props
Kyle Pitts Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114) & alt yards 50+ (+212 – 0.25 units)
Last year, with Penix as his quarterback, Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game, and he had at least 50 yards in four of the nine games. Penix understands what he has in Pitts, who is a 6-foot-6 weapon in the passing game. It shouldn’t take long for the southpaw to start looking his tight end’s way.
The Packers also gave up 58 yards to Vikings tight ends in Week 1, so we haven’t yet seen that covering the position is a strength for Green Bay. Expect Pitts to finish with at least 36 yards. And it’s worth also sprinkling an alternate for him to have 50+.
Falcons vs. Packers pick
I have a very strong lean on Falcons +6.5. I’m hoping to get +7 — or possibly buy to +7.5 at a reasonable number. So, my only bets for this game right now are the Pitts props, as I’m taking him to have 36 yards and putting a tiny something on him to have 50+. If I add Atlanta at any point, that’ll be posted on the VSiN picks page (linked above) and listed in my Week 3 best bets column.
Bet: Pitts over 35.5 receiving yards (-114) & Pitts alt yards 50+ (+212 – 0.25 units).
