The last time we saw Liberty vs. Coastal Carolina was in the 2020 Cure Bowl. That weird, COVID-altered season was full of twists and turns, but the Chanticleers went into the Cure Bowl as a top 10 team, sitting ninth in the AP Poll while Liberty was 23rd.
That Malik Willis vs. Grayson McCall showdown was a thriller, ending with a 37-34 Liberty victory in overtime. Willis had four rushing touchdowns, while McCall accounted for four total TDs.
The Week 4 opener is not that big of a game and is nowhere near the type of QB showcase we saw six years ago. We get a Liberty team that barely squeaked by FCS Gardner-Webb two weeks ago before humiliating Ball State 51-15. Coastal Carolina hasn’t beaten a FBS team yet this season, dropping one-score contests to West Virginia and Delaware with a blowout of FCS Fordham in between.
For this standalone Thursday night game, Liberty is a short road favorite with a total in the low 50s.
The first concern is the weather. A storm is expected to build up on the East Coast and affect the Northeast over the weekend, but we could see some remnants in Conway, South Carolina, on Thursday night, with rain forecasted early in the day, but wind gusts up around 25 mph all the way into the overnight hours. Like most weather situations, this one will be fluid and we’ll see if the total comes down on this one based on the forecast as kickoff approaches.
The Flames remain a run-heavy team under former Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell, who may be on a fairly hot seat by this point, especially coming off of a 4-8 season. The program invested a bit this year, bringing in Wake Forest transfer Deshawn Purdie and one-time Army star Kanye Udoh.
Udoh has only gotten six carries over the first three games, as he hasn’t been able to get ahead of Florida State transfer Kam Davis and Duke transfer Peyton Jones.
Purdie hasn’t found many holes in the ground game with just 14 yards on 19 attempts, but he does have a 5/0 TD/INT ratio while going 36-of-64 for 563 yards. The Flames had the ball for more than 37 minutes in the season-opening loss to James Madison and got outgained by a full yard per play, scoring just 13 points out of 65 offensive plays. The Dukes had 49 offensive plays and just 291 yards, but still emerged with the win.
First-year coach Ryan Beard seems to have the Chanticleers moving in the right direction, but it is a slow process. Montana State transfer Deuce Bailey has thrown for 826 yards already and has a 8/0 TD/INT ratio, but he’s only completed 55.7% of his tosses and has been sacked 10 times. Leading rusher Jevon Edwards has only averaged 3.6 yards per carry and Bailey has the second-most attempts with just 82 yards on 26 carries. After not getting much run in the opener against West Virginia, Dominic Lee-Knicely has 89 yards on his last 14 carries and maybe he’s working his way into more touches.
Coastal was down 24-7 to West Virginia in the opener after three quarters, but scored 17 points in the fourth to make it a game. Last week, they only mustered a total of 14 points against Delaware, but got stopped on 4th-and-1 with just over four minutes left and never got the ball back in the 22-14 loss. In their two FBS games, the Chants do have a yards per play edge of 6.48 to 5.86, but they also have a higher pass distribution than their opponents.
The weather forecast is really important here. Liberty wants to run the football and most of their passes will be moving pockets, play-action, and short-to-intermediate throws. Coastal Carolina can’t really run the football well and would much prefer to throw it. They are one of 26 teams to not throw an interception yet and rank in the top 30 in yards per attempt.
I’m on the under 50½, a total that moved down throughout the week due to wind in the forecast. The Mountaineers had 281 rushing yards on the Chants defense, but there was a 72-yard TD run in there, plus Michael Hawkins Jr. has been one of the most productive running quarterbacks thus far.
Liberty has four rushing touchdowns on 123 attempts and only one carry of 30+ yards. Missouri State had poor offensive line play while Beard was there and Coastal is tied for 135th with 11 sacks allowed. As long as we don’t get turnover craziness, I think this is the right side of the total.
Pick: Under 50½.
