With a top-three seed clinched, the Las Vegas Aces will begin the WNBA playoffs on their home court at Michelob Ultra Arena.
However, their potential first-round opponent remains unsettled with one regular-season game left.
Three teams are still in the running to meet them beginning Sunday, when the first round begins.
Who might be better fit for the Aces? It all depends.
Washington Mystics
If the league standings remain unchanged, Las Vegas would host the Washington Mystics in the first round, marking the teams’ second postseason meeting.
The last time they met in the playoffs was 2019, before Becky Hammon took over as the Aces coach and during the franchise’s first playoff run after relocating to Las Vegas. Washington w0n its first WNBA championship that season after defeating the Aces 3-1 in the semifinals.
This season, Las Vegas won the regular-season series 2-1, including both games played at home.
The Mystics have three players averaging more than 15 points per game, led by center Shakira Austin at 17.2 points per game. Guard Sonia Citron leads the team with 4.4 assists per game, while forward Kiki Iriafen leads Washington with 9.5 rebounds per game.
If the Mystics win their final regular-season game, they will enter the playoffs on a four-game winning streak. Washington has gotten hot late in the season, much like the Aces, who could close the regular season with seven consecutive victories with a win in their finale.
Indiana Fever
Another potential first-round opponent for the Aces is Caitlyn Clark and the Indiana Fever.
While this matchup would have seemed less likely a week ago, a difficult stretch to close the regular season has pushed Indiana down the standings.
Five of the Fever’s last eight games have come against playoff opponents, and Indiana has lost three of those four matchups, falling to the Dallas Wings, New York Liberty and Mystics.
For now, the Fever hold the No. 5 seed but are in the midst of a two-game set against league-leading Minnesota Lynx. A loss, coupled with a Mystics win, would move Indiana into a tie with the Mystics in the standings. Washington holds the tiebreaker over the Fever, forcing Indiana to the No. 6 seed.
Indiana took the opener of the back-to-back against Minnesota, but the Lynx rested most of their starters in the second half after falling behind by double digits. With Minnesota’s playoff positioning secured, the Lynx could take a similar approach in the series finale.
Guard Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring at 25 points per game, while Clark leads Indiana with 8.5 assists per game and center Aliyah Boston leads the team with 8.1 rebounds per game.
The Aces own a 22-5 record against Indiana since 2018, including their lone playoff series victory over the Fever in last season’s semifinals.
Dallas Wings
The Dallas Wings could become the Aces’ first-round opponent if Las Vegas moves up to the No. 2 seed.
The Aces can fall no further than the No. 3 seed but remain in contention to move up to No. 2 after the Golden State Valkyries’ overtime loss to the Portland Fire on Tuesday. That opened the door for Las Vegas to reclaim the second seed through the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If the Aces move up to the No. 2 seed, they would face the No. 7 seed in the first round while also earning home-court advantage at least through the semifinals.
That spot is trending toward Dallas based on the strength of schedule for the bottom three seeds in their final games and the Wings holding the tiebreaker over the Liberty, who sit behind them in the standings.
This season, the Wings won the regular-season series 2-1 over the Aces, but Las Vegas’ lone win came at home in a 99-84 victory, the most points either team scored in the series.
The only time these franchises met in the playoffs came during the Aces’ run to their second consecutive championship in 2023, when Las Vegas swept Dallas in the semifinals.
Contact Donovan Hicks at dhicks@reviewjournal.com. Follow @HicksSports on X.
