Life after Anthony Colandrea begins for UNLV on Saturday night in what some have termed a “College Football Playoff eliminator” at Allegiant Stadium against Memphis.
With one CFP berth available for the highest-ranked Group of Six team, these are two programs that could be in the mix, as Memphis is priced around 7-1 or 8-1 to win the American Conference, while UNLV is the favorite to conquer the new-look Mountain West Conference.
The path for UNLV might run through conference and FBS newcomer North Dakota State, as the Bison made the leap from FCS for this season and may very well be the second-best team in the watered-down MWC. The rebirth of the Pac-12 took Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State, among others, to that conference, so the Rebels have an easier path to a conference title on paper, but that may also hurt their chances of ranking high enough to reach the pinnacle for G6 programs.
Colandrea had 3,459 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season and also was the team’s second-leading rusher with 649 yards on 127 carries. The return of Jai’Den Thomas should ease the transition to quarterbacks Jackson Arnold and Alex Orji, but Colandrea’s passing prowess will be missed until proven otherwise. Colandrea led the Mountain West in passing and had the most single-season passing yards for UNLV since Sam King threw for 3,778 yards in 1981.
The 21-year-old Arnold was a five-star recruit when he committed to Oklahoma in 2023, and he was there for two seasons before transferring to Auburn. After winning the Gatorade National Player of the Year in his senior season at Guyer High School in Texas, he’s thrown for fewer yards over three college football seasons than Colandrea did last season. So, we’ll see if this is a new beginning for him with a great offensive mind in Dan Mullen and a running QB as his complement in Orji, who had nearly 5 yards per carry over three seasons at Michigan.
The offense only returns three starters around Arnold and Orji, but at least Thomas is one of them and he’s arguably the best player on that side of the ball. The defense also only has three starters back, but that side of the ball was badly in need of a facelift anyway. Paul Guenther took over as defensive coordinator in April and couldn’t really install his systems and schemes in spring ball, which may have led to finishing 126th out of 136 teams in yards per play allowed.
While UNLV fans and backers should expect growing pains, the same is true of Memphis with first-year coach Charles Huff. Ryan Silverfield was offered the same role at Arkansas and he jumped at it (despite being their third choice) and Huff made the move to Memphis after one season with Southern Miss. When he was at Marshall, he led the Thundering Herd to the Sun Belt title, but the athletic department wouldn’t pony up with a new contract for him or raises for his assistants. He left, taking a big chunk of the roster with him.
Huff brought some players from Southern Miss with him, but this is mostly a new-look roster and also one with a new quarterback. West Florida transfer Marcus Stokes and one-time Ohio State recruit Air Noland were battling to run offensive coordinator Kevin Decker’s offense. Decker was at Old Dominion, where the Monarchs had the 17th-ranked offense by yards per play and ranked 29th in scoring with 32 points per game. ODU QB Colton Joseph, who transferred to Wisconsin, was 43rd in the nation and fourth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 1,007.
So, the Rebels can expect to see a dual-threat approach on offense, especially with an inexperienced crop of skill-position guys. That said, Ohio State transfer Dallan Hayden might end up being one of the better G6 backs in the nation.
On the plus side for the UNLV offense, Huff brought several Southern Miss players with him to plug into defensive coordinator Lance Guidry’s scheme. That was not a very good defensive unit last season, and few offenses in the Sun Belt could cook the way that UNLV did last season.
Prediction: I’m looking for points at Allegiant on Saturday night, so over 56.5 is my best bet in this game.
