Those who read Thursday’s story were armed with some information on pitchers to go against.
While gamblers are inherently a pessimistic lot, we’ll head towards the weekend with more of a glass half-full approach and look optimistically at some pitchers that should be better bets going forward than they have been recently.
As written yesterday, baseball is a high-variance game. The nature of batted balls is a big part of it, in that you can hit a baseball with the optimized launch angle, exit velocity, and bat speed and it will land in the outfielder’s glove on the warning track.
Conversely, you can barely hit a sliver of the bottom of the ball and it will fall over the first baseman’s head for a double like a perfect lob wedge at Bali Hai.
When pitchers throw a pitch, what happens next is out of their control, and that’s why there are certain pitcher stats that we can isolate to find guys who are running on the wrong side of Lady Luck and those who have a horseshoe lodged in an unspecified orifice. Some of the stats in question are LOB percent – left on-base percentage — and BABIP — Batting Average on Balls In Play. Matthew Boyd, Sandy Alcantara, and Bryce Elder were the subjects of Thursday’s doom-and-gloom update. Today, we have a different set of guys who might be able to turn their frowns upside down in their next few starts.
Dean Kremer (Twins): Pitchers who get dealt at the trade deadline are always tough to handicap. The acquiring team always has a variety of reasons to be interested in a player and normally those include making some tweaks to his mechanics, pitch selection, or pitch sequencing. Throwing to a new catcher can also be a challenge. The former Orioles hurler actually had two really good starts for Minnesota before a rockier outing against the Phillies last time out. His next start is scheduled for Saturday against the Padres at Petco Park and it has the chance to be a good one. Kremer’s 6.32 ERA in the second half has a lot to do with his 53.7 percent LOB percent. The league average LOB percent entering play on Thursday for starting pitchers in the second half was 73.4 percent. With a 15/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio since joining the Twins and a lot of weak contact against, Kremer should see some better outcomes with men on base moving forward.
Jake Bennett (Red Sox): Bennett’s second half started with six shutout innings against the AL-leading Rays. Since then, he’s allowed 3-plus runs in each of his five starts, prompting the Red Sox to give him some extra time off between starts. He last started on Aug. 14 and he’s scheduled to start on Sunday. While there are reasons to be worried about Bennett, especially with a career-high in innings pitched, his 4.64 ERA in the second half is paired with a 3.69 FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and is a run estimator based on what pitchers can “control” — strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. Bennett actually has a higher strikeout rate in the second half than he does for the season at the MLB level and has only given up three home runs. He just hasn’t been able to strand runners. Supported by a good offense, maybe the extended break will do him well.
Kevin Gausman (Cubs): It has been a tough season overall for Gausman, who has a 4.58 ERA in 143.1 innings pitched. He does have a 3.58 FIP, and guys who have a run or more gap with a higher ERA and lower FIP are generally pitchers you want to think about backing. In Gausman’s case, he was very emotional about leaving Toronto and his performance really took a dive in June when the team was struggling badly and the reality of being traded as an impending free agent consumed the 35-year-old vet. His Cubs debut was strong, but his last two starts have not been. Overall in the second half, he has a 5.52 ERA thanks to a .376 BABIP and a 64.7 percent LOB percent. Remember, the league average LOB percent for starters in the second half is 73.4 percent. The league average BABIP is .288. Gausman is a major outlier both ways, and a major outlier on the best defensive team in the league. My guess is that he settles in soon.
Once again, this doesn’t mean that you have to bet on the Twins, Red Sox, or Cubs when these guys start. With so many prop betting options available, there are all kinds of different ways to show support for pitchers who should show substantive improvement over their next few starts.
