The $2 million Belmont Stakes on Saturday might look at first glance like a slimmed-down replay of the Kentucky Derby, with five of the nine entrants exiting the Run for the Roses, including winner Golden Tempo and runner-up Renegade.
But while the 158th running of the Belmont is being run at the same 1¼-mile distance as the Derby rather than its traditional 1½ miles, this race is shaping up as a much different contest than the one run five weeks ago in Louisville.
Apart from field size — nine vs. 18 starters in the Derby — the most obvious difference is the pace scenario. While the Derby was loaded with horses who prefer to run on or near the lead, the Belmont field is composed primarily of horses who typically like to run in the middle or rear of the pack in the early stages of a race and then come running late – a style employed by both Golden Tempo and Renegade.
The notable exception is the fresh face Powershift, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt who has run close to the pace in two of his three starts, including a sharp victory in a maiden special weight race on Kentucky Derby undercard on May 2 at Churchill Downs. If Powershift and jockey Luis Saez are allowed to set a comfortable pace without being pressured in the early stages they could prove tough to run down in the stretch of Saratoga Race Course.
The big question confronting handicappers in the third and final leg of the Triple Crown series for 3-year-olds is one of intent: Is Powershift a “rabbit” – a horse entered in a race to ensure a strong pace favorable for a late-running stablemate or is he an improving horse with a legitimate chance to last the demanding 1¼ miles — 3/16ths of a mile farther than he has ever run?
Pletcher, who also trains the 2-1 morning line favorite Renegade, has insisted this week that Powershift is the latter.
“(Entering Powershift in the Belmont) is a nothing-to-lose type thing with a talented horse that’s inexperienced but would probably benefit from what’s going to be a favorable pace scenario for him,” Pletcher told the Daily Racing Form. “I think he’s a sneaky 12-1 shot.”
Even so, the fact that Powershift is owned by Mike Repole, who also is a co-owner of Renegade, raises suspicions that the colt might be more hare than hero in this spot.
If Powershift guns for the lead from the outset and runs as fast and as far as he can, that should aid the closers. But Saratoga’s main dirt track has favored horses racing near the lead in the previous two runnings of the Belmont Stakes there while Belmont Park undergoes a complete renovation.
Last year Sovereignty raced much closer to the pace than typical and Dornoch won from just off the pace in 2024. The Travers Stakes, a 1 ¼-mile race for 3-year-olds run each year in August at Saratoga, also provides a decent yardstick and it too tends to favor horses with speed, with seven of the last 11 winners racing within two lengths of the leader in the early going.
So even if Powershift sprints for a mile before tiring, deep closers like Golden Tempo and Renegade will still need to run down horses racing nearer the pace, who figure to inherit the lead if Powershift shifts into reverse.
On paper there are four horses that appear to have the ability to stalk the early leader or leaders: Chief Wallabee (3-1 on the morning line), Growth Equity (12-1), Commandment (6-1) and Emerging Market (6-1). I’ll be focusing on two of the four: the Brad Cox-trained Commandment, who will be ridden by two-time Belmont Stakes winner John Velazquez, and Emerging Market, one of three Chad Brown-trained colts in the race.
Commandment had a four-race win streak snapped in the Derby, when he broke a step slow and was then bumped from both sides in the upper stretch while in the midst of a rally. He still fought on to finish seventh, 5 ¼ lengths behind the winner.
Emerging Market is a steed of a different stripe. Making just his third start in the Derby, the son of Candy Ride raced close to the rapid pace from the inside under two-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat before understandably tiring late to finish a well-beaten 10th. In the Belmont, he drew post 8, which should allow Prat to establish a good stalking trip before unleashing the colt entering the stretch.
With a field half the size of the Derby and five fewer than in the Preakness Stakes, it’s nice to include a long shot in your bets to boost potential payouts. I have one that has gotten little attention in the lead-up to the Belmont: Vitruvian Man, 30-1 on the morning line. The Doug O’Neil-trained colt ran a very odd race when third in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4, dropping well back on the far turn for no visible reason before re-rallying to finish third. O’Neil has had two months to try to work through the colt’s issues and has put five solid works into the son of Vino Rosso, who has the look of a horse who will appreciate the 1¼ distance based on his strong gallop-outs after his races.
Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor and horse racing writer who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.
Brunker’s picks
Here’s how Mike Brunker plans to bet the Belmont Stakes
— $10 to win on Commandment and Emerging Market at or above their 6-1 morning line price.
— $2 exactas using Commandment and Emerging Market boxed with Vitruvian Man, Powershift, Chief Wallabee and Growth Equity, as well as a $5 exacta box of Commandment and Emerging Market.
— A 50-cent trifecta constructed thus: Commandment, Emerging Market/Vitruvian Man, Power Shift, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Commandment, Emerging Market/ Vitruvian Man, Power Shift, Chief Wallabee, Growth Equity, Commandment, Emerging Market.
— Assuming the win bets meet my requirements, that’s a total investment of $72.
