The single biggest reason Donald Trump won the past election boils down to two words: gas and groceries. Joe Biden’s failure to control prices on those key commodities enabled Trump, who has never won a majority of the popular vote, to capture a second term.
Now, Trump is handing his enemies the issue he used to defeat them. His attack on Iran has spread chaos throughout the Middle East and ignited cost increases in fuel and food that threaten to dislodge his control of Congress and decimate the remainder of his presidency.
Tanker traffic has virtually shut down in the region while both sides are pummeling drilling sites, storage facilities and shipping ports. “We are looking at what is by far the biggest disruption in world history in terms of daily oil production,” energy historian Daniel Yergin told The Wall Street Journal. “If it goes on for weeks, it will reverberate across the global economy.”
The average price Americans pay at the pump has shot up to $3.54 a gallon, as of this week, an increase of 44 cents in just a week and 62 cents over the past month. Diesel fuel, used mainly to power heavy trucks and farm machinery, has risen even more sharply.
As Democrats discovered in 2024, this issue is particularly powerful — and painful — because folks know exactly what it costs to fill their tanks. Even when they’re not stopping for gas, they pass stations blaring the inflated prices on brightly lit signs. Moreover, this blow lands as voters are already upset over the cost of living, with 62 percent disapproving of Trump’s handling of inflation in a new NBC poll, while only 36 percent approve.
Much remains unknown, primarily how long the war will last and how much damage it will do to oil supply chains. But Trump continues to send contradictory signals about his goals and intentions. In the same day he declared, “We’ve already won in many ways,” but then insisted that the war will continue “until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.”
This uncertainly aggravates uneasiness in world markets. “This war starts underwater, and it’s only going to grow more so, which is going to hurt Republicans on the ballot,” Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher told The New York Times. “Perhaps one could inoculate some of that if they had a central message that resonated, but they have a new rationale every other day — way too many mixed messages, which only adds to voters’ confusion and suspicions.”
Trump insisted on social media that oil prices “will drop rapidly” once Iran is defeated, and he argues that the short-term pain is “a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”
Safety and peace are certainly noble goals, but they remain highly intangible and difficult to convey. The price voters pay, however, is all too real. And Trump has largely failed to convince many Americans that the sacrifice is worth it — not only in higher prices but in lost lives.
“Presidents have this power, and if they use it and they don’t educate the public, the public gets very angry and disenchanted and turns against the government,” warns presidential historian Michael Beschloss in the Times.
Complicating Trump’s problem is that his foes know precisely how vulnerable he is politically and are trying to maximize the cost he endures by deliberately crippling oil exports.
“Iran is wagering it can outlast the United States and Israel — not militarily, but by grinding the war into a brutal contest of endurance,” Reuters writes. “Its strategy is stark: Unleash drones and missiles, cut vital energy routes and jolt global markets hard enough to force Washington to blink first.”
The economic fallout from a prolonged conflict only starts at the gas pump. American farmers, already suffering from Trump’s tariff and immigration policies, are particularly vulnerable.
“Nearly a third of the world’s fertilizer travels through the shuttered Strait of Hormuz,” Semafor reports. “As farmers across the Northern Hemisphere prepare to plant spring crops, they fear supply chain disruptions will send their costs soaring.”
A wide range of goods and services — from airline tickets to fabrics and plastics made from petroleum — could be impacted. And virtually every consumer item that’s shipped by truck or air would have to reflect higher fuel costs. Starting with groceries.
Elections are eight months away. But Trump has armed his foes with an arsenal of lethal weapons that will be used against him.
Steve Roberts teaches politics and journalism at George Washington University. Contact at stevecokie@gmail.com.
