VSiN NFL handicappers Steve Makinen, Dave Tuley, and Matt Youmans weigh in on the Monday Night Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears.
Steve Makinen
What seemed to be a crippling injury for the Bears to quarterback Caleb Williams has settled into a minor hamstring pull that shouldn’t keep him shelved for long. The franchise will breathe a sigh of relief, and it should motivate them to fight hard as an underdog without him on Monday night.
With as high as the expectations were for them, perhaps unrealistically, I can assure you that they won’t go down easily in this one to Philadelphia. Sure, coach Ben Johnson’s offense didn’t look good last Sunday even with Williams, but that could actually play into our hands here, since the defense looked good, and NFL teams that lose while allowing fewer than 12 points have also fared well in their follow-up game, going 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3 percent) since 2015.
If you’re curious about the recent history, NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 18-21 SU but 21-17-1 ATS (55.3 percent) since September 2021. The last 37 of these games have seen under the total go 24-11-2 (68.6 percent) as well, with games producing just 41.3 PPG. Furthermore, in non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 27-23 SU and 31-19 ATS (62 percent) surge since 2019. If that weren’t enough, won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 51-44 SU but just 38-55-2 ATS (40.9 percent) in the last 95 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
Of course, the betting public is also heavily backing Chicago, with 55 percent of the handle and 75 percent of the bets on 2-0 Philly. It’s a good sign that the number of bets is far greater than the handle, indicative of novice wagering. It doesn’t even address when the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-155 ATS (47.3 percent) and 138-153 ATS (47.4 percent), respectively. With the Eagles showing a very unconvincing 2-0 record now, and underdogs 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Eagles-Bears meetings at Soldier Field, I’ll side with the hosts.
Best bet: Let’s go Chicago +4½ to compete well with Philly on MNF
Dave Tuley
There’s a lot of uncertainty on the MNF matchup. The advance line was pick ’em, but after the Eagles beat the Titans 24-20 to get to 2-0 and the Bears lost 9-3 to the Vikings to drop to 1-1 (and QB Caleb Williams pulled his right hamstring), the line reopened Eagles -3½ on Sunday afternoon.
Reports on Williams’ injury have been all over the place, and Chicago backup QB Tyson Bagent has a concussion, so Case Keenum has been pressed into duty, with Bagent as the backup. That has caused the line to rise to 4½, which is a “buy sign” for me to fade the move.
I’m confident the Bears’ offense can stay in the game whether it’s Keenum, Bagent, or even Williams if he’s able to play with the extra day to recover. Of course, the line would drop if that’s the case, so that’s why I think the time to take the Bears is ASAP.
Best bet: Bears +4½
Matt Youmans
My top play was going to be the Bears +3½ with Tyson Bagent at quarterback. Bagent was supposed to step in for starter Caleb Williams, who was carted off with a life-threatening hamstring injury late in Chicago’s 9-3 loss to the Vikings. Unfortunately, Bagent was surprisingly sent to concussion protocol and is doubtful for Monday night.
Bears coach Ben Johnson, no longer touting his offense as the best in NFL history, will probably be forced to go with 38-year-old Case Keenum. The good news for the Bears is Keenum could be better than the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts, who threw two interceptions in an uninspiring comeback win at Tennessee last week.
Philadelphia is a phony 2-0 team soon to be exposed.
Top play: Bears +4½
