We’re still a few weeks away from Tuesday and Wednesday games featuring the Sun Belt and Conference USA, and we’ll have MACtion further down the line. But we aren’t empty-handed when it comes to weeknight games in Week 3. In fact, we get a Power Four matchup between Syracuse and Pitt, as the two former Big East rivals meet in the Panthers’ ACC opener.
The ACC gets two weeknight games — at least if we consider Friday a weeknight — as Miami draws the spotlight again, this time against Wake Forest. Houston-Texas Tech is the bigger of the two Friday night games, but we have to get through Thursday before worrying about Friday. That means digging into the game in the Steel City.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh analysis
Syracuse is already 0-1 in ACC play after losing to Cal at home this past weekend. That was a surprising defeat, as the Orange outgained the Golden Bears by nearly 200 yards and were 4.5-point favorites. But losses will happen when a team squanders a big advantage in yardage by finishing with a minus-3 turnover margin. Steve Angeli’s three interceptions were too much to overcome.
Although the final score is what everybody will notice, it also should be noted that the Orange bottled up Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, holding him to 21-of-34 passing for 182 yards. The Bears also did nothing of consequence on the ground, finishing with 67 yards on 25 carries and a long run of 13 yards. The Orange defense under first-year defensive coordinator Vince Kehres was strong but recorded only one sack and didn’t force any turnovers. Those would have been helpful given Angeli’s three interceptions and the Syracuse offense’s average of just 4.7 yards per play.
After completely dismantling Miami (Ohio) to open the season, Pitt looked significantly different against tougher competition in UCF. The Panthers won 12-7 just a week after scoring 59 points against the RedHawks, who are usually one of the better defensive teams in the Group of Six. Against UCF, Pitt scored on only two possessions: an 83-yard field goal drive and a 44-yard touchdown drive set up by strong special teams play. The Panthers had only 15 first downs.
But they also held UCF to nine first downs, so it was not a good offensive display for either team. They combined to go 7 for 31 on third down. The Panthers held UCF to fewer than 1 yard per carry and an overall success rate of just 33 percent, according to Game On Paper. The Knights averaged fewer than 4 yards per play and were fortunate to recover all three of their fumbles. Otherwise, Pitt likely would have covered the spread.
Last week’s results would suggest a defensive struggle, but the total of 51 does stand out a bit. The teams combined to score 125 points in their season openers, but those games were against New Hampshire and Miami (Ohio). How much can we really take from those two data points? At least last week’s games were against comparable competition. I’m just throwing that out there because the under looks like the easy play, but the total is in the low 50s for a reason, even with a chance of rain during the game.
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh prediction
Syracuse missed two field goals and settled for two red-zone field goals last week, including one after reaching inside the 10-yard line. Cal scored only 14 offensive points. The Orange’s loss was largely self-inflicted, but I think it obscured the good things they did.
Meanwhile, Pitt faced a real defense and mustered just 2.4 yards per carry and 18 completions. I’m not sure that’s a team ready to cover a double-digit spread.
Pick: Syracuse +11
