The last time the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills met was in 2024, when Buffalo earned a 48-42 victory in Detroit.
That game had a total of 55½. This game has a total of 53½, and points are expected. However, points are generally a little tougher to come by in Thursday night games, and it’ll be interesting to see whether these two teams can buck that trend.
Last week wasn’t the greatest for the Lions’ offense, as it cooled down significantly in the second half of their win over the Saints. Still, this offense is loaded with talent, and it ranked ninth in the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play (0.071) last year.
Meanwhile, the Bills, who ranked third in EPA per play (0.145) last year, scored 36 points against an elite Texans defense. This one screams over, but I’m staying away.
I’m also avoiding sides. I was ready to jump on the Buffalo moneyline, but I waited a little too long. It was originally available around -160, but it has climbed to -200 or higher.
The spread also has moved from Bills -3 to Bills -4.5, making it tough to like Buffalo to cover. It would have been much easier to stomach laying a field goal.
Despite that, I’m not willing to play Detroit, either. The Bills are the better team, plus they’re playing their first game in a new stadium. That should have them fired up.
Perhaps the best way to play this game is by using the Buffalo moneyline in a parlay. You can also tease the total down and play the over. But I’m sticking to player props here.
As for why I’m leaning toward the Bills, I’ll just say that I don’t trust the Lions’ secondary. Not only is it banged up, but it also lacks high-end talent. Nobody punishes busted coverages quite like Josh Allen.
We just saw this group get torched by Tyler Shough in the second half, and Allen is a much better passer. Allen also has an elite ability to use his size and legs, so Detroit will have to adjust its approach to account for that.
Of course, the Lions’ offense should be able to move the ball against the Bills. But given the way Detroit looked in the second half of its last game, along with the fact that Jared Goff will have to play outdoors, I trust Buffalo to come up with a few extra stops.
Dan Campbell also is 8-18 straight-up as a road underdog with Detroit. Meanwhile, Joe Brady might fill in for Sean McDermott as coach, but the Bills are 14-2 straight up as home favorites since the start of the 2024 season.
Lions vs. Bills player prop
Dawson Knox Over 12.5 receiving yards (-114)
In Week 1, Dalton Kincaid had five catches for 130 yards. He’s clearly the top pass-catching tight end in this offense, and he’s probably one of the league’s best weapons at his position. However, Knox will remain part of the Bills’ offense, and there might be more opportunities for him this week.
If Detroit pays more attention to Kincaid because of last week’s performance, Brady will be ready with a game plan that utilizes Knox, who two catches for 42 yards when these teams last met. I can see him making more than two receptions this time — even if he finishes with fewer yards.
Our OptaAI player prop projections have Knox finishing with 22.48 receiving yards, representing a 26 percent edge on a receiving-yard total of 13½. You can still find 12½ at several sportsbooks, making the edge even larger.
While I would love to have more action on a matchup this exciting, I’m strictly playing Knox’s over. If this turns into a shootout, he might even cash the bet on a single reception.
NFL Game Day
Who: Detroit Lions (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)
When: 5:15 p.m. PT Thursday
Where: Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y.
TV/streaming: Amazon Prime
Latest odds: Bills by 4½
Against the spread: Lions 0-1; Bills 1-0.
Last week: Lions beat the Saints 31-30 OT; Bills beat the Texans 36-31.
Last meeting: Bills beat the Lions 48-42 on Dec. 15, 2024, in Detroit.
Series record: Bills lead 8-4-1.
