Stability Score Picks for college football Week 3:
My new Stability Systems angles have had mixed results so far, as teams with a lot of experienced starters in play have thrived, going 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS the last two weeks. Teams with new defensive coordinators have also proved to be profitable fades, as have teams with low overall Stability Scores of 0-6.
This past offseason I did an in-depth study of all of the stability factors and came up with several new betting angles worthy of bettors’ attention. Here they are with the qualifying plays for Week 3. As a reminder, these systems only cover FBS vs. FBS games:
Note: Lines shown were as of Tuesday afternoon. In general, all systems are NOT line-dependent other than the 30-point threshold and go under the assumption that oddsmakers have not accounted enough for the stability imbalance.
* New coaches are 115-170 SU and 134-151 ATS (47 percent) in the first four weeks of the CFB season vs. returning coaches since 2021 (13-6 SU and 11-8 ATS last week)
Week 3 plays: Against — Coastal Carolina +4½, Penn State -40½, Arkansas +24½, Iowa State -23½, North Texas +3, Toledo -5½, Michigan -35½, Kentucky +16½, Utah -28½, Stanford +9½, Missouri State +3½, Ohio U +5½, Virginia Tech -3, Colorado State +17½, Michigan State +29½, James Madison +2½, Northern Illinois +34½, Sacramento State +27½, UCLA -14.
* New defensive coordinators are 189-227 SU and 191-218-7 ATS (46.7 percent) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus returning defensive coordinators since 2021 (14-16 SU and ATS last week)
Week 3 Plays: AGAINST Coastal Carolina +4½, Kent State +52½, Kansas State -20½, Arkansas +24½, Eastern Michigan +24½, Toledo -5½, Cincinnati -14½, Michigan -35½, Utah -28½, Stanford +9½, Baylor -19½, East Carolina +3, Georgia State +18½, Georgia Southern +3, Ohio U +5½, Florida -2½, Virginia Tech -3, Colorado +3½, BYU -17½, Tennessee -35½, UAB +7½, Northern Illinois +34½, Sacramento State +27½, San Jose State +6½ .
* Teams with 17+ total returning starters are 118-89 SU and 116-89-2 ATS (56.6 percent) in the first four weeks of the CFB season versus teams returning 16 or fewer since 2021 (5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS last week for the second straight week)
Week 3 Plays: On Houston +7½, USC -23½, Texas A&M -16½, Virginia Tech -3, Notre Dame -29½, UCLA -14.
From this info, bettors can certainly discern that having new head coaches, new defensive coordinators and a lot of returning starters are the most impactful offseason happenings.
Over the last decade-plus, the “old stability system” that I depended on was about a 56 percent consistent running strategy up until last fall. However, I was also able to recognize that conference games were pulling the winning percentages down. In fact, the teams with the old stability edge of seven points or more in conference game action were only winning around 49½ percent ATS.
The other two things I found that were negatively impacting my Stability System results were 1) games with point spreads of 30+ and 2) leaving out teams with an edge of 6 on the stability scores.
With the stats above in mind, my official new College Football Stability System(s) will read as follows:
Play on any team with a stability score edge of 6+ in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3), assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team. (351-242 SU and 317-264-12 ATS, 54.6 percent since 2013), including 7-11 SU and ATS last week.
Week 3 Plays: On Delaware -4½, Texas State -3, Temple +5½, Florida Atlantic -7, Charlotte +15½, Marshall -3½, South Alabama -5½, Maryland +3, BYU -17½, Notre Dame -29½, Louisiana -7½, San Diego State -2½, North Dakota State -27½, Fresno State -6½.
And play against any college football teams with stability scores of 0-6 in non-conference games in the first four weeks of the season (Weeks 0, 1, 2, 3) versus teams with higher scores, assuming the game does not have a point spread of -30 or higher for either team (FADE record 278-156 SU and 236-193-4 ATS, 55 percent since 2013), including 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS last week.
Week 3 Plays: (fade all) Coastal Carolina +4½, North Texas +3, Toledo -5½, Cincinnati -14½, Utah -28½, East Carolina +3, Missouri State +3½, Ohio U +5½, Virginia Tech -3, Colorado State +17½, Michigan State +29½, James Madison +2½, Sacramento State +27½.
