After an offseason of hype, the Super Bowl favorites got an immediate reality check. The Rams flew from Los Angeles to Australia at the last minute and looked unprepared, sleepwalking through a humbling 27-7 loss to the 49ers. It was a reminder to the betting public not to believe the hype, especially early in the season.
Week 1 tends to be unpredictable. Remember when the Raiders upset the Patriots to open last season? Las Vegas finished 3-14, while New England went 14-3 and reached the Super Bowl. Don’t overreact to anything that happens this weekend. Below are two of my favorite Week 1 plays, though I have several more at the VSiN website.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s last call for Aaron Rodgers, who claims this definitely is the final year of his NFL career. He said something similar a year ago, but this time he really means it.
Time catches up to everyone, and we are about to find out how much the 42-year-old quarterback has left.
Rodgers’ second season with the Pittsburgh Steelers begins Sunday under a new coach. Mike Tomlin is out, and Rodgers’ old friend from Green Bay, Mike McCarthy, is now in charge. Although the McCarthy-Rodgers reunion is one of the season’s top storylines, the betting line on the Falcons-Steelers game is one of the hottest topics of Week 1.
Atlanta will open the season with the No. 3 quarterback on its depth chart. With former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr. still rehabilitating a knee injury and Tua Tagovailoa sidelined after suffering an oblique injury in practice Thursday, journeyman Cooper Rush gets the call. Pittsburgh has moved from a 3-point favorite early in the week to a 6-point favorite.
Rush is nothing special. In nine years with the Cowboys and Ravens, he has a 9-7 record as a starter. Rush lost both of his starts with Baltimore last season and threw four interceptions without a touchdown pass. Still, the truth is Rush might not be a downgrade from Tagovailoa, who looked terrible in the preseason, so the line movement looks like a minor overreaction.
The Falcons do have some positive attributes. Kevin Stefanski is a major coaching upgrade, and Bijan Robinson is an elite running back. Robinson’s playmaking ability is the primary reason Atlanta could pull the upset, but Pittsburgh’s defensive front will be focused on containing him and forcing Rush to make plays through the air.
Rodgers did not make many big plays last season, when his mobility was severely limited. His numbers were good — 3,322 passing yards, a 65.7 percent completion rate, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions — but he mostly made short throws and used his high football IQ to dissect defenses.
I bet the Steelers at -3 (-125) early in the week and wanted to fade Tagovailoa. At this point, it doesn’t make sense to lay a bigger number against a similarly ineffective quarterback. Chris Boswell is one of the league’s most accurate long-range kickers, and Pittsburgh probably will count on his leg to help win this game. With 41 being a key number for totals bettors, look to the under on the DraftKings total of 41.5 in what likely will be a low-scoring grinder.
Most importantly, the Steelers just need to win. I’m using Pittsburgh on multiple Circa Survivor entries, and it has become a popular pick this week.
Bet: Falcons-Steelers under 41.5 (-115)
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
John Harbaugh’s debut as Giants coach is being hyped as a turning point for the franchise, and he can start by turning around this one-sided rivalry Sunday night. The Cowboys have won 16 of the past 18 meetings, with New York’s only two victories coming in Week 18 games.
Dallas has legitimately high expectations because of its improved defense and a Dak Prescott-led offense that should be explosive as usual. But the defense will get an early stress test. Harbaugh has built a bigger offensive line, the running backs are physical and tough, and quarterback Jaxson Dart is a playmaker. The Giants’ strength could be their defensive front, so don’t be surprised if Harbaugh’s team wins the battle on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Bet: Giants +3 (-110)
