Ben Shelton will take on Alexander Zverev in Sunday’s U.S. Open men’s final. Shelton will be looking to win his first career Grand Slam title, while Zverev will be seeking his second.
If you’ve been following VSiN’s U.S. Open content, you should have a half-unit bet on Shelton to win the tournament at 19-1. We also added a three-unit play on Zverev to win at +100 before he defeated Karen Khachanov. That said, you should be able to sit back and enjoy this match as a fan, which is exactly what I’ll be doing.
However, I know a lot of people are looking for thoughts on this final, and I have a very strong lean. If I didn’t already have futures here, I’d be putting a sizable play on Zverev at -143 — and would play it up to -160.
Shelton brings a lot to the table. He has a massive serve, is extremely aggressive and loves competing on a big stage. There’s undoubtedly a scenario in which the American rises to the occasion, allowing him to become the first American man to win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick in 2003.
However, I mentioned -160 as a playable price for Zverev for a reason. I believe the German wins this matchup close to seven times out of 10, making a spectacular performance by Shelton a little unlikely.
Zverev is 5-0 against Shelton in his career, and he hasn’t dropped a set in their past four meetings. Zverev also has beaten Shelton in straight sets in their past two matches in fast, low-bouncing conditions — at Cincinnati and the Nitto ATP Finals in 2025. Those are conditions in which you’d expect Shelton to fare a little better against the German, who prefers slow-bouncing courts and longer rallies.
The on-court matchup strongly favors Zverev. According to TennisViz’s Courtside Advantage numbers, Zverev holds several advantages. Over the past 52 weeks, both players have a Serve Quality rating of 8.8 out of 10 in non-Grand Slam events. However, that’s about the only area that looks favorable for Shelton.
Zverev has higher Return Quality (7.4 to 6.8), Forehand Quality (8.0 to 7.3) and Backhand Quality (8.1 to 7.1) ratings. Stylistically, Zverev’s game also is built to beat this type of player.
Shelton has played disciplined tennis over the past two weeks, but Zverev can hang around in baseline exchanges forever. He’s not going to give Shelton much of anything. Zverev also is suffocating against left-handed players, posting an 88-18 career record against them. Seven of those losses came against Rafael Nadal.
Zverev’s weaker wing happens to be his forehand, but he won’t mind hitting that shot crosscourt to Shelton’s backhand. Zverev’s forehand can often be his weakest shot from the back of the court when he’s facing strong competition, but Shelton’s backhand will be the weakest shot in this matchup.
Zverev also got the monkey off his back by winning the French Open earlier this summer. He enters this match with the experience of having won a Grand Slam title and having played in five other major finals. He should have an easier time dealing with the nerves, even though the challenge will be different as he tries to beat an energetic American in front of a raucous New York crowd.
Strong lean: Zverev moneyline (-143)
