Here’s our top soccer picks for Premier League Matchweek 4. Target a Chelsea blowout, goals at Anfield, and another Arsenal defensive masterclass.
Chelsea vs. Hull City
Hull City’s start has been remarkable. The promoted side is unbeaten through three matches, has seven points and is the only Premier League team yet to concede.
However, the underlying numbers suggest that record is unsustainable. Hull conceded 1.81 expected goals against Manchester United, 1.28 at Coventry, and 1.74 against Aston Villa. Three clean sheets say more about opponents failing to take their chances than Hull preventing them from being created.
That is a major concern against Chelsea, who have scored 16 times in five matches across all competitions under Xabi Alonso. Only Arsenal have stopped the Blues from scoring at least twice, while Chelsea prepared for this game by scoring six second-half goals against Leeds in the League Cup on Wednesday.
Chelsea have scored within the first four minutes in each league match, while Hull lost 4-0 to them in the FA Cup in February.
I’m taking Chelsea on the -2 Asian Handicap. A three-goal win cashes the bet, while a two-goal margin returns the stake. Chelsea can turn sustained pressure into multiple goals and are not a team inclined to settle for a narrow win once they take control.
Hull’s defensive record has been excellent, but I expect it to come crashing down at Stamford Bridge.
Bet: Chelsea -2 Asian handicap at +100.
Liverpool vs. Fulham
This is my favorite goals bet of the weekend. It is unusual for me to go Over, especially at 3.25, but Liverpool’s early matches have created the type of game state that makes four goals attainable.
Andoni Iraola is a manager I greatly admire, and Liverpool have scored two goals in each of their first four fixtures. Their opening league games against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest ended 2-2, they beat Ipswich 2-0 after scoring twice inside 10 minutes, and they came from behind to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Alexander Isak scored both goals at Portman Road and now has three league goals, matching his entire tally from an injury-hit debut season on Merseyside. He should relish facing a Fulham team that has conceded the second-highest expected-goals-against total in the league and seven actual goals in three matches.
New Fulham manager Álvaro Arbeloa is committed to an attacking style, but it has left his side very open. Of the 40 shots Fulham have faced, 29 have come from inside the penalty area, and no Premier League team has conceded more than their 14 big chances.
Fulham have scored eight goals in four matches across all competitions, so they should contribute here. Ipswich’s poor finishing kept last weekend’s Liverpool game from becoming a shootout; Fulham should offer more at Anfield.
The sides have shared 26 goals across their last six meetings — an average of 4.33 per game — with only one clean sheet. Five of those six games saw Over 3.25 goals cash.
Bet: Over 3.25 goals at -110
Sunderland vs. Arsenal
Arsenal win to nil cashed in the first two weeks, and I’m going back to the same bet. Rather than laying a large handicap, backing the champions to win while keeping Sunderland scoreless turns a -200 moneyline into an appealing plus-money play.
Including their 3-0 Community Shield win over Manchester City, Arsenal have won all five games this season. They beat Coventry 3-0 and Aston Villa 1-0 in the league, then opened their Champions League campaign with a 1-0 win at Napoli. Chelsea are the only team to score against them.
Mikel Arteta’s side have conceded 0.93 expected goals, comfortably the best total in the Premier League; Manchester City are next-best at 2.68. Sunderland have failed to score more than once in any of their four fixtures.
The Black Cats held Arsenal to a 2-2 draw here last season, but the champions won the February rematch 3-0 and limited Sunderland to five shots.
Arsenal are comfortable winning patiently away from home, as they showed at Aston Villa. Eight of their last 10 Premier League wins have come to nil, making this price difficult to ignore.
Bet: Arsenal to win to nil at +125
