Matt Youmans dishes out a few of his favorite college football picks for the weekend, headlined by heavyweight showdowns between Michigan and Oklahoma and Ohio State and Texas.
Michigan +5.5 vs. Oklahoma
A few controversial stories have come out of Ann Arbor, Michigan, over the past few years, and all have been crazy in different ways. Kyle Whittingham was brought in to clean up the mess, but the veteran coach found himself in the middle of the latest Michigan football scandal last weekend.
Whittingham was an innocent bystander in the eye of the storm when the Wolverines were gifted a second chance at a Hail Mary and snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. A bizarre video review and highly questionable clock change launched conspiracy theories aimed at the officiating crew and the Big Ten, which was hit with cheating accusations. The bottom line is that Western Michigan’s apparent 12-7 win was overturned and became a 13-12 miracle in favor of Michigan. The entire situation was unfortunate and unjust, and it raised serious doubts about the integrity of the game.
But we eventually move on and turn the page to the next game. A handicapper must ask: How will Whittingham and the Wolverines deal with a week full of fan and national media negativity? Will the story be a major distraction, or will Michigan’s coaches and players focus on fixing mistakes and quieting the critics?
The unranked Wolverines, suddenly dismissed as outcasts by angry Top 25 voters, host No. 11 Oklahoma on Saturday morning in an intriguing Big Ten-SEC battle. The betting public is making its vote clear, as most sportsbooks report around 85 percent of the money and tickets on the Sooners as road favorites.
On top of everything else, Bryce Underwood, the $12 million sophomore quarterback who completed the winning 47-yard touchdown pass, is in jeopardy of being benched following an otherwise poor performance.
It’s obvious there are not many reasons to like Michigan’s chances, but that’s also a reason to be attracted to the Wolverines. The ugly home underdog is the contrarian side, and coupled with a 7-point line move, some of us find these angles irresistible.
Michigan’s defense is more than solid, allowing only 221 total yards to the Broncos, and the offense has the ability to run the ball in a grind-it-out type of game. Sooners coach Brent Venables has an elite defense and the superior quarterback in John Mateer. Oklahoma was impressive in a 51-0 victory over hapless UTEP, yet its offensive line has problems and its running attack appears pedestrian.
It looks too easy to play the favorite, so I’ll make the tougher bet and take the points.
Ohio State-Texas, over 49.5
A year ago, Arch Manning failed to live up to the hype and flopped as the Buckeyes beat the Longhorns 14-7. It should be a totally different game this time in Austin, mostly because Manning has more experience and plenty of weapons to help him move the ball against an Ohio State defense that lost a lot of NFL talent.
The Buckeyes are rarely underdogs and maybe they are miscast in that role, but this is a double-revenge situation for Texas. Ohio State’s offense is guaranteed to be explosive with quarterback Julian Sayin pulling the trigger, supported by receiver Jeremiah Smith and running back Bo Jackson. These teams put a combined 115 points on the board last weekend, so I’m more confident in the total than picking a side.
I’m also going to tease Ohio State to +7.5 with Hawaii -1 in a matchup against New Mexico State. Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado missed practice this week with either an ankle or foot injury and is questionable to play. His backup, freshman Bjorn Jurgensen, is decent yet inexperienced.
Alejado has not done much in seven of eight quarters this season, and the Warriors never found the end zone in a 21-6 loss to UNLV last week. The Aggies feature a massive offensive line that could overpower the Hawaii defense, so laying points is risky business. However, Hawaii coach Timmy Chang desperately needs a get-right game, or things will quickly head in the wrong direction in Honolulu. I won’t lay a touchdown in this game, but I believe the Warriors have enough to win outright.
