These are a few of Steve Makinen’s NFL Week 1 best bets. Find his complete card, additional betting analysis, and more NFL coverage at the VSiN website.
Browns +8½ at Jaguars
Public opinion suggests bettors think Jacksonville will remain a team on the rise and Cleveland will be as bad as ever. The public is rarely right, particularly early in the season, and this game has the same feel as last year’s Raiders-Patriots Week 1 tilt, when no one gave Las Vegas much of a shot.
There are a lot of Browns offensive players excited for the new season under Todd Monken. He led the Ravens offense over the last three seasons and put up big numbers. It’s hard to trust an offense that scored more than 20 points just twice in its final 10 games last season, but the new regime gives reason for hope. Cleveland also turns back to a veteran QB who has had success when starting regularly, Deshaun Watson. Jacksonville, meanwhile, may have caught lightning in a bottle last season.
I’m turning to a couple of systems here. NFL opening-week road teams that won between four and six games the prior season are 56-24-5 ATS (70 percent) since 2004. This is, of course, the Browns. Also, laying big points is rarely a good idea in a Week 1 NFL contest. Underdogs of 6.5 points or more might be just 11-34-1 SU, but they are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1 percent) in Week 1 since 2013.
There is also 78 percent of the handle at DraftKings on Jacksonville. Over the last three years, when a “super-majority” handle of 77 percent or higher got behind an NFL favorite of 6.5 points or more, those teams went just 13-25 ATS (34.2 percent) for -14.5 units and an ROI of -38.2 percent.
Steelers -3½ vs. Falcons
You think that in Week 1, oddsmakers set up lines in what could be trap spots? To me, this Pittsburgh line feels like one of those games where they are baiting you to take the Falcons because they are getting “more than a field goal.”
In the Mike Tomlin years, Pittsburgh was usually a team I didn’t like to rely on as a home favorite because the Steelers have consistently produced in the underdog role. However, under Tomlin, there was a strange dynamic with lines set at exactly -3.5 at home. Pittsburgh was 6-1 SU and ATS in those games since 2016, with an average victory margin of 19.8 PPG. One of those wins came against Atlanta in 2018, a 41-17 decision. That is part of a five-game SU and ATS winning streak for the Steelers in head-to-head play.
Do you think that will change with a new coach and a veteran roster? I don’t think so. Retread coaches have been more proficient at covering spreads at home since 2020: 59-52 ATS (53.2 percent) at home versus 57-60 ATS (48.7 percent) on the road or at neutral sites. Also, the reunion of Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers should be fun to watch.
On the other sideline, Atlanta is also beginning a new era under Kevin Stefanski, who is looking to slow a trend that shows the Falcons at 18-36 ATS (33.3 percent) against non-conference foes since 2014. Stefanski has named Tua Tagovailoa the starter. I think that limits an offense loaded with solid young skill players.
Texans +1½ vs. Bills
It was a strange trend for Buffalo in the Sean McDermott era. The Bills used to fare well against the league’s top defenses, going 28-13 SU and 29-16 ATS against teams allowing 19 points per game or fewer since 2016. What was strange was how badly the Texans and their elite defense beat up on Josh Allen in their meeting last year. He was sacked eight times, and Buffalo turned it over three times.
Oddsmakers have done new coach Joe Brady no favors by establishing Buffalo as a road favorite. As favorites of four points or fewer, rookie coaches have gone 97-73 SU but 71-88-10 ATS (44.7 percent) over the last decade.
Offense also doesn’t tend to travel well from season to season. Teams that averaged more than 26 PPG in the prior season are 27-41 ATS (39.7 percent) in Week 1 of the follow-up campaign when not facing another high-scoring team since 2013. Strong defense carries over better: teams that allowed fewer than 20 PPG the prior season are 30-10 SU and 27-13 ATS (67.5 percent) in that same spot since 2017.
With home teams 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight Bills-Texans meetings, I’ll look for a minor upset here.
