The transition from Week 1 to Week 2 is a tough one for bettors and bookmakers. It is hard to know just what to take from a Big Ten team destroying a MAC team or a Sun Belt team taking a FCS foe out to the woodshed.
Of course, there are also some decent FBS vs. FBS games that may be more telling as a data point, but what we saw may not be what we get moving forward.
It is another one of those really high-variance weeks and one that should help bettors that are on the ball. But, it is a lot tougher to bet on game day if you don’t pay attention to where the line opened and how it moved.
Oklahoma (-6½ , 43½ ) at Michigan, 9 a.m.
Here’s a line undoubtedly impacted by what happened over the weekend, as the overriding sentiment is that Michigan should have lost to Western Michigan. While the Wolverines survived, they were putrid on offense. The defense was good, albeit against a MAC team, so that’s why we see the 43½ total here, but Oklahoma is absolutely a bigger favorite than they would have been otherwise.
DraftKings actually opened this 4½ and it moved to 6½ , though like I’ve talked about before, moving between 4 and 6½ , especially in college football where extra points remain almost automatic, doesn’t take much. If we get to 7 here, that’ll be a point of significance.
UNLV (-4½ , 57½ ) at North Texas, 12:45 p.m.
I don’t envy oddsmakers for having to line this game. UNLV’s season opener against Memphis was a little bit of a quirky game, but they played outstanding defense in the 21-6 win over Hawaii. That said, we now have seven bad quarters of football for the Rainbow Warriors and Micah Alejado to think about. And UNLV has only scored 21 points in each of their two games.
A brand-new North Texas roster did virtually nothing against Indiana, but not many teams have success against Indiana these days. Really, really tough line here. Some 5½ lines moved down to 4½. Circa opened at 5. Given where the line is, it won’t take much to swing the balance of it sitting in that dead zone between 4 and 6.
Let’s see where it goes. Also, this is the third straight total in a UNLV game in the upper 50s and they are 2-0 to the Under.
San Diego State at UCLA (-11½ , 53½ ), 4:15 p.m.
Side and total movement here, as UCLA is getting some market love again. That move was proven correct with the Bruins’ win and cover against Cal last week. This week, the over has gone up from 51 to 53½ and the Bruins have gotten some modest appreciation, going as high as 12½.
The line opened 10½ at DraftKings and Circa. While there aren’t any numbers of great significance between 10 and 13, we have seen UCLA take some early, respected money and that means something.
Ohio State at Texas (-1½ , 48½ ), 4:30 p.m.
The game of the week is clearly this one, with Texas a market-wide favorite. Nothing happened last week to shift the balance of power in this game, as both teams excelled in controlled scrimmages.
Last season’s game was a rock fight, as Ohio State coach Ryan Day put it all on his defense and shielded freshman QB Julian Sayin. That shouldn’t be the case this season. I think we’ll see money hit the board on both sides here and this line should stay pretty stagnant, even with the magnitude of the game.
North Dakota State (-3½ , 46½ ) at Air Force, 7 p.m.
This is the opener and subsequent line move that caught my attention the most. With two very solid data points, it seems like North Dakota State got too big for their britches in the minds of market-shapers, as this line opened 6 or 6½ and has been chopped down to 3½ at most places, with Circa down as low as 3.
We can’t really glean much from Air Force’s performance against Duquesne, but it is very interesting to see this line come down quickly early in the week given that the Bison have given up just seven points in two games. I did agree with the initial move based on my power ratings, but it may have swung a little too much.
