As things stand, expectations are pretty low for the Las Vegas Raiders. Being part of the AFC West doesn’t help, as the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers are all favored to make the playoffs. While the Raiders aren’t the longest shot to win the division — that distinction easily belongs to the Arizona Cardinals — they are grouped near the Cleveland Browns as the third-longest behind the Miami Dolphins (40-1) per most sportsbooks, sitting in the 15-1 to 20-1 range.
In that respect, what constitutes a “good” season for Klint Kubiak? With a season win total that has been either 6.5 (with additional vig on the Under) or 5.5 (with additional vig on the Over) over the course of the summer depending on the sportsbook, is the barometer for success less about wins and losses and more about how the team looks visually and statistically?
Is the season more about individual development and health? Ashton Jeanty had 975 rushing yards as a rookie, but also only had 3.7 yards per carry. He only lost one fumble, so that was a huge positive, but you would love to see a top-10 pick do better than 3.7 yards per pop, even if he did wind up third in receptions and fourth in receiving yards. Similarly, you’d love to see Brock Bowers stay healthy and be the 1,000-yard receiver with 100+ catches that we all know he can be.
But, if the season boils down to how individuals play in hopes of setting up for the future when the gap is potentially closed a bit between the Raiders and their AFC West brethren, wouldn’t that mean going through the growing pains for Fernando Mendoza in 2026? Each Kirk Cousins start, while intended to keep the team competitive, doesn’t really do much for the future of the franchise unless the hope is to garner some trade interest as teams need help at the most important position on the field over the course of the season.
Unfortunately, sportsbooks have mostly shied away from slapping Over/Under numbers on Cousins because of the expectation that Mendoza will take over at some point. Nobody knows exactly when, though in states where Kalshi wagering is allowed, the favorite is Week 5 at 32 percent, which seems rather presumptuous given how the exhibition games played out for him. That would be on the road against the New England Patriots on Oct. 11, a week after the Raiders host the Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium. According to those probabilities at time of deadline, there is a 12 percent chance he doesn’t start this season at all. That said, it was a market that opened the last week of August and had very little liquidity at the time these probabilities were examined, meaning there weren’t a lot of contracts placed.
Even though Mendoza is not a lock to play this season and an effective Cousins would push the timeline more and more with each successive week, the No. 1 overall pick was still one of four players with single-digit odds for AP Offensive Rookie of the Year less than a week in advance of the season opener.
In terms of the potential hardware available for others at season’s end, Jeanty and Bowers were both listed in the AP Offensive Player of the Year market at around 60-1, while Maxx Crosby was around 15-1 for AP Defensive Player of the Year. Speaking of health concerns, Crosby, who was about to be a Baltimore Raven a few months ago, is another cornerstone who needs a full season for the team.
Recently, I profiled the AP Coach of the Year market in The Review-Journal and pointed out how the award has had a bias towards first-year head coaches or those who have recently won the award and do something worthy of it again. If Kubiak can put the Raiders on the map in a conference as balanced as the AFC, and in a division as tough as the AFC West, he will be in the running for the award with preseason odds around 20-1.
From a betting standpoint, the Raiders are expected to finish last, Jeanty and Bowers could take some steps forward with better health, Mendoza clearly has a ton of upside, though nobody knows when we’ll see it. Kubiak could find success in Year 1, but it will all depend on your definition of what success is because 6-11 might not fit that description.
