As we get more data points, we’ll get more certainty, but an uncertain environment can be good for bettors, as the sportsbooks are trying to figure these teams out as much as we are.
With that in mind, while Week 1 may seem daunting, it isn’t one that we should shy away from.
Florida Atlantic vs. Florida
Time: 4:45 p.m. PT
Pick: Florida Atlantic +26.5
Wunderkind Zach Kittley had an interesting first season in Boca Raton, as the Owls were 4-8, but a solid 7-5 ATS and 7-5 to the Over. As a team that finished -21 in turnover margin, they have some obvious things to clean up and the hope would be that QB Caden Veltkamp would be able to do a bit better in Year 2 of the system. Star WR Easton Messer is back for more after catching 104 balls for 1,052 yards last season and Dominique Henry, who started slow, caught 18 balls for 297 yards over the final three games.
Maybe FAU can find more balance with RB Kaden Shields-Dutton, who got steadier work late in the season, or Fairmont State transfer Leonard Farrow. But, this is a dangerous backdoor cover team at all times. As long as they aren’t turning the football over with reckless abandon, I think the Owls will have a much better and more balanced offense this season.
The Jon Sumrall era begins with a lot of hope, as the Gators were putrid on offense last season and really weren’t that great on defense either. Florida was just 91st in YPP with 5.4 and just 21.6 PPG, which ranked 111th. New starting QB Aaron Philo’s action came against Gardner-Webb last season, so we can’t really glean much from that.
While I do think Florida will improve as the season goes along, Sumrall walked into a pretty good situation at Tulane after Willie Fritz left for Houston. I don’t think he walked into a good situation here and I’m not sure this hodgepodge group of players will have the new systems and schemes down well enough to win by four touchdowns or more here.
Central Michigan vs. New Mexico
Time: 7 p.m. PT
Pick: Central Michigan +11
The absence of Jack Layne may not be a big deal for the Lobos as the season goes along, given the expected starter at QB had a 13/10 TD/INT ratio last season, but I think it matters at the outset here. Head coach Jason Eck may roll out a multitude of options here to see which one might stick.
Central Michigan does not have that same, as Angel Flores will be the transfer. Joe Labas wound up doing most of the passing last season with a 70.7% completion rate and a 13/6 TD/INT ratio, but Flores was a big part of the picture with a team-high 107 carries for 527 yards. There is no question as to what Central Michigan wants to do, as they ran the ball 545 times out of 800 plays. The Chippewas were a top-25 offense in rush attempts that finished tied for 101st in total offensive plays.
With former Army OL coach Matt Drinkall serving in the head role here, it’s pretty clear that he has brought some of those run-heavy concepts to Mount Pleasant. The Chips want to shorten games with a ball-control offense and a lot of safe, easy throws. Between Labas, Flores, and the others with cameo appearances, CMU was eighth in the nation in completion percentage.
To cover this type of number against that kind of team requires some offensive efficiency. Layne completed over 65% of his passes, but New Mexico was a run-first unit as well that had 118 more carries than pass attempts. They had 4.2 yards per carry and only 13 rushes of 20+ yards. Given the limited number of possessions I’d expect to see in this game and Central Michigan having a returning starter at QB, it’s a big ask, even with the long travel and the elevation advantages, of New Mexico to win by margin here.
