On Sunday, the 2026 U.S. Open gets underway from the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows. As the fourth and final grand slam of the season, these are the biggest two weeks on the tennis calendar, and New York always delivers.
On the men’s side, Carlos Alcaraz returns to defend his crown after more than four months sidelined with a right wrist injury. His opening round against Roman Safiullin will be our first real read on his form.
Meanwhile, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is out because of a right knee injury that has shelved him since Wimbledon. Sinner’s absence blows the draw wide open for a field that also features Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton.
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka aims for a historic three-peat, but the WTA field is healthy and loaded, featuring Elena Rybakina, Iga Swiatek, Jessica Pegula, Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva.
Let’s dive into the best futures on the board before main-draw action begins.
U.S. Open women’s futures
Jessica Pegula to win quarter 2 (+200, 1.5 units) and to win Open (12-1, 0.5 units)
Of all the top seeds, Pegula possesses my favorite path to the semifinals. The American has played elite tennis throughout the North American hard-court swing and should be a sizable favorite in every round leading to a potential quarterfinal against Karolina Muchova or Elina Svitolina. Muchova hasn’t played singles since Wimbledon and Pegula matches up well against Svitolina, holding a 6-3 head-to-head edge.
As for the outright market, I refuse to miss out if she finally captures her first slam event. A closing gauntlet potentially featuring Muchova, Sabalenka,and Swiatek or Gauff is daunting, but Pegula is a gamer, and her play from the back of the court is right where it needs to be.
Coco Gauff to win (+550, 2 units)
I grabbed Swiatek during her dominant title run in Canada, but Gauff wrested away the “hottest player in tennis” label with a blistering week in Cincinnati that featured straight-set wins over Marta Kostyuk and Pegula.
Crucially, Gauff has kept her double-fault rate below 10 percent across nine consecutive matches. Her delivery looks mechanically sound, her forehand wing is holding up under pressure, and the flaws opponents usually target are simply not appearing. Backed by an Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd that absolutely adores her, Gauff is the player to beat in Flushing.
U.S. Open men’s futures
Frances Tiafoe (+700) and Brandon Nakashima (+750) to win quarter 3
I’ve been as bullish on Djokovic as anyone over the last two years, but I can’t justify backing him here. His physical conditioning cracked in the Cincinnati heat against Thiago Agustin Tirante, and best-of-five conditions in humid New York will be far more taxing. Factoring in a shaky mixed doubles showing and unconvincing practice sets, both Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev look vulnerable. That makes Quarter 3 wide open, so I’m backing two in-form Americans:
Frances Tiafoe: Fresh off a run to the Cincinnati final despite recent hand surgery, he thrives under the New York lights and landed a very manageable draw.
Brandon Nakashima: Having reached at least the semifinals in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati, Nakashima sits No. 7 globally in the Elo Rating (2003.9). He is serving like a top-three player in the world right now, making this price an absolute bargain.
Arthur Fils to win quarter 4 (+500) and to win Open (12-1, 0.25 units)
Surviving best-of-five tennis across a grueling draw with his back and hip history is a valid question mark, but Fils is playing too well to ignore. The Frenchman put on a masterclass to win his first Masters 1000 in Cincinnati, dispatching Jiri Lehecka, Alex de Minaur, Flavio Cobolli and Tiafoe.
Fils is now up to No. 3 in the Elo Rating (2107.1), performing near Alcaraz’s level (2132.7) this season. He possesses the accurate serve, devastating forehand and raw athleticism required to make a deep major run. While he may have to navigate Shelton and Alcaraz just to reach the semifinals, his ceiling warrants the risk. If he emerges from the quarter, holding a live 12-1 ticket going into the final weekend offers massive leverage.
Previously added futures
Iga Swiatek to win event (+800, 1.5 units)
Ben Shelton to win event (19-1, 0.5 units)
Taylor Fritz to win event(19-1, 0.5 units)
Rafael Jodar to win event (20-1, 0.5 units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime to win event (49-1, 0.5 units)
