Wake up early for this one.
This week the UFC heads to Shanghai this week for an early card, or late card depending on your sleep schedule. Goes down midnight PT Friday, so get those bets in early.
The main event between Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes is one that my betting model has strong confidence in. This is the lead-in to the main event between Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong, so this is a pretty high-profile women’s fight and one that could lead to something more down the line for both combatants.
Yan Xiaonan has had a decorated run in the strawweight division. She challenged for the belt in 2024 against Weili Zhang, losing a unanimous decision, and notably holds a victory over current champion Mackenzie Dern. But since that title shot she’s gone 1–1, most recently dropping a decision to Virna Jandiroba in April of 2025. She returns now after a 16-month layoff at 37 years old. After starting her UFC career with six straight wins, she’s gone 3–4 since 2021. The decline is real even if the name value remains.
Across from her is Denise Gomes, 26 years old and riding a four-fight win streak, most recently a decision over Tecia Pennington. She’s 6–2 since entering the promotion in 2022 and ascending at exactly the moment Yan is trying to hold her ground. The age gap here is 11 years, and the trajectory gap is equally significant.
Both women share a 63-inch reach, with Yan holding a 3-inch height advantage. The xR% numbers are nearly identical, 58 percent for Yan, 59 percent for Gomes, which tells you the rounds have been competitive for both fighters without either consistently dominating.
Yan is not a finisher. Only one UFC finish across 13 fights tells that story clearly. Gomes has three knockout victories in eight UFC bouts, showing genuine finishing ability at this level.
The striking profiles are both clean and technical. Yan lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute with a +1.46 differential, absorbing only 3.23 per minute. She’s efficient and controlled. Gomes lands slightly less at 4.02 per minute with a +0.95 differential, absorbing 3.07 per minute. Both women are technically sound strikers, with Yan holding a modest output edge.
The clinch and ground game is where Gomes begins to separate herself. She spends only 42 perecen of her time at distance, she’d rather work in close, and holds a 52 percent control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, spending 30 percent of her fight time in a control position. She’s not an aggressive takedown artist with only 10 scored at 34 percent accuracy, but she uses the closed distance to accumulate damage and dictate the pace of exchanges.
Yan’s ground game is largely absent from her profile. She holds just a 22 percent control rate. And while her 73 percent takedown accuracy is impressive on paper, nearly half of those takedowns came against a single opponent. The grappling picture overall tilts toward Gomes in a fight where closed-distance work could be the deciding factor.
Strength of schedule goes to Yan, but the age, the layoff, and the statistical profile all point in a concerning direction for the veteran.
The model runs it through and lands on the underdog. Denise Gomes receives a 63 percent win probability and a Tier 1 Live Dog designation at +130.
The Live Dog tier isn’t the hottest. We’re aware of it. But the model’s confidence in this pick is real, the price is right, and a 26-year-old on a four-fight win streak against a 37-year-old returning from 16 months away is a spot worth backing.
You can get more of my thoughts alongside host Dave Ross on VSiN’s First Strike Podcast.
