With apologies to Chico Escuela (the fictional baseball player played by Garrett Morris on “Saturday Night Live” in the late 1970s), preseason football has been berry, berry good to me! And hopefully our “dog or pass” disciples!
Overall, underdogs dominated Preseason Week 2 at 9-7 SU and 10-5-1 ATS (we outperformed overall dogs by being selective) while road teams led 10-6 SU & 11-4-1 ATS and Over/Unders split 8-8. So far in the preseason, dogs lead 18-13-1 SU and 22-9-1 ATS (71 percent) while road teams are 19-12-1 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (64.5 percent), with Unders leading 20-13 (60.6 percent).
So, dogs (especially on the road) and Unders have been the way to bet. But we also mentioned last week that big line moves were 0-8 ATS and fading the public has also been profitable. The line moves went 3-5-1 ATS in Preseason Week 2 so I certainly wasn’t in a rush to post my takes this week.
Let’s get to it as we try to keep building our bankroll for the real games!
New York Giants -3 at New York Jets
I’m glad I kept backing John Harbaugh in preseason games with his new team, as we went 2-0 SU & ATS, but now they’re favored. I thought the Jets would be playable this preseason with their backup QB room of Cade Klubnik, Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook, but they were favored in their first two games. Now, we get a chance to back them as 3-point dogs in this annual New York-New York rivalry game.
Best Bet: Jets +3
Cincinnati at Philadelphia -2.5
This line has stayed pretty solid despite a bunch of updates for both teams, as they haven’t moved the needle. The Eagles are favored at home, maybe because some people think there’s still a battle for the No. 2 QB spot between Tanner McKee and Andy Dalton (or they’re showcasing them as trade bait), but I’m willing to fade them with a Bengals team that is 2-0 despite not playing starters much (and they’re reportedly not playing this week at all). Josh Johnson (yes, the 40-year-old journeyman QB) and Sean Clifford combined to go 25-for-38 for 282 yards and three TDs in putting up 27 points on the Bears.
Best Bet: Bengals +2.5 or better
Minnesota at Denver -6.5
There’s still a battle for No. 2 QB in Denver between Sam Ehlinger and Jarrett Stidham, so this line has sneaked up from Broncos -5.5 to -6.5, high for a preseason game. I’m willing to fade the move as the Vikings still have a QB battle. J.J. McCarthy not only lost the starting job to Kyler Murray, but it’s looking like he’s going to lose the No. 2 spot to Carson Wentz as well. McCarthy could be playing for a job (in Minny or elsewhere), so I expect the Vikings to be playing hard throughout, as he’ll be with backups also playing for their jobs.
Best Bet: Vikings +6.5
Chicago at Tennessee -3
This line also opened -1 and went to Titans -3.5 before settling back down at a field goal. The Titans have been playing to win under Robert Saleh and are 2-0, so it’s tough to fade them here. However, if Tyson Bagent ends up playing, I’d be interested in the Bears as dogs (but beware that if he is activated that this line could be gone quick).
Best Bet: Pass for now, but maybe Bears +3 if we can still get it
