Two Breeders’ Cup qualifying races are at Del Mar this weekend, but the bigger and better of the two is the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes. The winner of this 1 1/4-mile race earns an automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will be run at Keeneland on Halloween weekend.
This is Race 10 on the Saturday schedule with a scheduled post time of 6:30 p.m. PT.
Here are some notes on my favorites in the field:
2. Forged Steel (5-1; Gonzalez/Joseph): The first of two Saffie Joseph entries, Forged Steel should start at the front of the pack here. The question is whether or not he can do what he did in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes. The son of Vekoma went wire-to-wire there by 9 ½ lengths, but that was a lesser field than what he’ll face here. Handicappers are likely to be skeptical with Forged Steel, as he failed to hit the board in the Suburban Stakes after running away with the Hollywood Gold Cup, but that was a cross-country ship to Saratoga for July 4. He hasn’t run since then after being scratched from the Whitney Stakes.
3. Finger (8-1; Tosaki/Tanaka): If Forged Steel isn’t at the front out of the gate, perhaps it will be Finger. The 3-year-old son of Gun Runner has two of the three legs of the Japan Dirt Triple Crown under his belt with wins in the Haneda Hai and the Tokyo Derby, which was run at the distance that he’ll try to conquer in this one. The Japan Dirt Classic on Oct. 7 is where he’s pointed, but a win here would put him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 31 and that would be an interesting turnaround. Nevertheless, he has to show well here first in his first U.S. race. The size of the field shouldn’t bother him, as he’s faced bigger fields in Japan, but the class of this race is noticeably higher.
6. Original Sin (15-1; Hernandez/Walsh): Juan Hernandez has the mount on this Curlin colt who ships in from Saratoga for his first foray in California. He won the G3 Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs and then finished ninth in the Suburban stretching out to 1 ¼ miles for the first time. He won twice at 1 ⅛ prior to that, so Walsh and the connections felt it prudent to give him a shot at a longer distance. While he didn’t run well, he gets one of California’s best riders and a guy with nearly $114 million in career earnings. Hernandez entered the week with a 27 percent win rate in the summer meet and this Calumet Farm 4-year-old will likely see his price pushed down as post time approaches.
11. Knightsbridge (5/2; Alvarado/Mott): The 5-year-old son of Nyquist seemed to like making a second turn, given the elite run he had in the Monmouth Cup just over a month ago. Primarily a miler, Knightsbridge won literally running away by more than 10 lengths. That field was nowhere near the caliber of this one, but he also ran second between Nysos and Journalism in the Met Mile. Unfortunately, we won’t see a repeat of that with Nysos and Journalism retired, but it makes a ton of sense for Knightsbridge to be the favorite here. Flavien Prat had the Monmouth ride for Bill Mott, but he’ll go back to Junior Alvarado, who had the ride in the Met Mile, for this one.
Pacific Classic Stakes picks
Knightsbridge is the deserving favorite, but this is another extra quarter mile above his career-long run. Maternal grandfather Bernardini didn’t mind distance and neither did Nyquist, who won the 2016 Kentucky Derby. He seems like a must in exactas and trifectas, and he may very well win the race.
But, I’ll go with a price here and look at Finger, the Japanese horse who can get to the front, save a bit of energy, and make a push again at the end. I also really like Original Sin’s current form and Hernandez in the mount.
Prediction
3 Finger
11 Knightsbridge
6 Original Sin
2 Forged Steel
