The NFL preseason is underway. With 10 new head coaches in the league, plus a lot of other recent hires, we don’t have a big preseason sample size to see how the current sideline bosses have done in these exhibition games. That’s usually a good betting angle to pursue, since some head coaches seem to emphasize winning these games more than others, but we have a shorter supply of data points to consider than usual.
Now that the NFL has shaved down the number of preseason games from four to three and given teams extra time prior to Week 1, coaches are handling these contests a little bit differently. Fewer reps are available and that sometimes means more prominent players are out there a little bit longer. Sometimes, it doesn’t matter how many games there are — the risk-reward just isn’t high enough in the minds of some coaches to put the starters in harm’s way.
Here are three betting tips to keep in mind for the preseason:
Listen to the coaches
You know the best part about the preseason? The coaches usually tell you what they’re going to do, who is going to play, and for how long. During training camp, beat writers get a lot more unfiltered access during the preseason because there isn’t as much need for gamesmanship or secrecy. The win-loss records matter very little, so if a player is hurt, you’ll know it. If a starter isn’t going to play, you’ll usually know it. If the coach isn’t happy with the running game or pass protection, you know that will be a point of emphasis and that is a valuable piece of intel.
Follow the beat writers and news sources that are out there for information on the state of the team and the practices and it should really help you handicap the game. Sometimes it is simply a race to bet on a piece of news first, so stay vigilant.
Handicap the coaches
Not only do you want to listen to the coaches, but you also want to handicap them. Some coaches seem to put more stock in creating a winning culture when it comes to the “meaningless” exhibition games. Other coaches just want to make sure that everybody gets their work in and the game goes as close to perfect as possible from a health standpoint.
Success in the preseason is absolutely built into the line for some guys. For example, John Harbaugh, now with the Giants, is a ridiculous 47-18 SU in the preseason, though 0-1 with his new team. Robert Saleh, now with the Titans, is actually 11-2-1 SU in the preseason, including the 19-13 win over the 49ers in Week 1.
On the flip side, Bengals head coach Zac Taylor is just 5-14 SU, though he’s off to a 1-0 start this year. Dan Quinn’s Commanders were 0-3 last year, leaving his SU record at 7-20, but he, too, bucked the trend with a 20-7 win last week.
Know QB3 and QB4
For the first week or two of the preseason, starting QBs will play very little, and some won’t play at all, so your bet will be decided by the third or fourth-string quarterback. Plays break down a lot late in games as rookies and guys with limited experience finish out the game, so I like to prioritize mobile quarterbacks who can improvise and make something out of nothing.
For some teams, those guys will play a lot in the second half in Week 2 as well. As mentioned, the coaches will tell you their plans, but it is up to you to know who you are betting on when it’s crunch time and the game is likely to be decided. Some of the QBs down the depth chart are recent late-round draft picks or undrafted free agents. Others are veterans who have had a lot of reps in the preseason but just aren’t good enough to get rostered consistently in the regular season. Know the depth chart.
Lastly, not a tip, but just a piece of advice — don’t shy away from betting on preseason NFL. It will be the only three weeks of the season when coaches are honest and forthright, and that can lead to some strong betting opportunities if you are paying attention and thinking critically about the games.
