There are plenty of unknowns about the NBA’s official entrance into the Las Vegas market with an expansion team.
So let’s start with what we do know for certain. Bam Adebayo does not like Tyler Herro.
Oh, and Las Vegas expansion is happening.
The labeling of a future franchise as “potential” or even “likely” are simply a waste of letters at this point.
Commissioner Adam Silver will deliver his yearly state of the league address on Tuesday at the Summer League and he’s probably going to say all the right things.
That while the league is focused on Las Vegas and Seattle in its evaluations of whether this is the right time to expand, there is no guarantee one or both will actually get a team in this cycle.
Sure, OK.
We can’t really speak for Seattle, but an NBA team is coming to Las Vegas.
It has been the worst-kept secret in sports for years and now it’s a matter of months or weeks, not years, before it is announced at this point.
If there was ever a question, it was answered by how many potential ownership groups are lining up despite the astronomical expected price tag of around $8 billion.
The last remaining issue to sort out is which of the crowded field of groups will get the right to cut that check. It could even be a more heated battle than Herro and Adebayo.
Let’s sort through that in the most Las Vegas way possible by putting odds on each of the potential bids, with the caveat this is an incredibly fast-developing situation so the betting board could change by the day.
Las Vegas Jacks (3-1)
The group headed by Jerry Colangelo has to be considered a front-runner at this point.
There wasn’t a whole lot of detail provided about where exactly the money is coming from, but the Jacks claim they have $8 billion committed or indicated with a goal of about $5 billion more. These aren’t the kind of people who are just creating that number out of thin air, either.
They have a plan to fully finance both the franchise and a “next-generation basketball-centric multi-purpose sports, entertainment and convention venue.”
That means a whole lot of revenue going directly to the team and the league. The other owners would probably fall in love with that even if there wasn’t already a great deal of reverence for Colangelo, a true legend of the league.
The best part: Jacks is not going to be the name of the team. It’s just a working title for the bid. Phew.
Bill Foley’s group (6-1)
Foley has been a model owner in the NHL and laid a blueprint for a successful expansion franchise in Las Vegas both on and off the field.
But he’s going to face an uphill battle with a plan to have the NBA team share T-Mobile Arena with the Golden Knights, especially since he only owns 15 percent of the venue.
Even if he had full control of the facility and revenue, the NBA would much rather have its own building in Las Vegas.
It’s a valiant effort, but probably won’t happen as currently constructed. He could essentially be punished for providing too efficient of a plan.
Look for him to bring in some other powerful names as the field narrows, which could shift the odds.
Thrive Eternal (7-1)
Former Disney CEO Bob Iger and Joshua Kushner are the faces of this potential bid that could be a strong player when all is said and done, though their pursuit hasn’t been formally confirmed.
Thrive Eternal is an arm of Kushner’s Thrive Capital that launched this year to largely pursue investments in sports, entertainment and cultural brands.
They have money and connections, including Iger’s longtime relationship with the NBA through Disney’s ESPN.
It’s a very powerful group that could be a threat, though they would have to separate from their portion of the Heat.
The MAGI (12-1)
It would be nice to root for this bid, fronted by NBA Hall of Famer Earvin “Magic” Johnson.
They were first to jump into the fray and have said they want to build a new resort project to go along with an arena.
A minority-led ownership group would be a positive step forward.
But there just hasn’t been much movement over the past few months and this bid may be losing steam.
Field (15-1)
Other groups are going to jump into the fray, several of which have already floated early feelers. There are also like 78 proposed arena projects, or at least it feels that way. Some of us who could walk to games should the Starr Project get approved would really appreciate that, though it feels like a pipe dream.
But it’s tough to handicap the unknown. We’ll definitely keep this as the longshot.
Contact Adam Hill at ahill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AdamHillLVRJ on X.
