If prediction markets are an accurate indicator, this year’s World Series of Poker Main Event will fall short of five-figure attendance for the second straight year.
The market on Kalshi for “Will the 2026 WSOP main event have over 10,000 entries?” was trading at a 26.7 percent chance for “Yes” at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, the day before the start of the $10,000 buy-in No-limit Hold’em World Championship.
While there are several variables that help determine the field size for the Main Event, one factor that could impact this year’s tournament is an amendment in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that limits declarable losses for gamblers.
The change to the tax code under President Donald Trump’s federal budget bill limits gamblers to a 90 percent deduction of their losses rather than the previous 100 percent.
For American poker players, that means someone who won $100,000 at the WSOP but lost $100,000 for the year would have to pay taxes on $10,000 rather than zero.
“I definitely think there’s some uncertainty with a lot of players,” professional poker player Daniel Negreanu said. “Most of them have gone on as normal, but there is a small few who have sort of been a little more risk averse and conservative and want to wait it out and see exactly how it plays out.
“I think there’s still hope in the poker community that this silliness won’t actually take hold because it’s detrimental to this city more than anything.”
Numerous Las Vegas casino executives have lobbied for the restoration of the 100 percent deduction for gambling losses. U.S. Rep. Dina Titus of Nevada introduced the FAIR BET Act, while Nevada’s U.S. senators, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jackie Rosen, have co-sponsored the FULL HOUSE Act in an unsuccessful attempt to restore the 100 percent deduction.
Ray Kondler, a Las Vegas-based CPA who specializes in advising poker players and gamblers, said the biggest concern he has heard from poker players this summer at the WSOP is whether it’s worth playing in the higher buy-in events.
He added that it’s hard to tell whether the Main Event will be impacted because it’s such a special tournament for both professional and recreational poker players.
“It’s definitely a valid point for the Main,” Kondler said. “You win $10 million and you play every high roller and lose $12 (million), you’re going to pay taxes on $1 million. That’s crazy.
“It could still get (to 10,000 entrants). But we seem to be bombarded with a lot of more questions about the bill.”
Last year’s Main Event won by Poker Hall of Fame member Michael Mizrachi drew a field of 9,735 entrants, down from a record 10,112 entrants in 2024. The Main Event had 10,043 runners in 2023, the first time the tournament field crossed five figures.
The Main Event returns to ESPN after a five-year absence and will feature wall-to-wall coverage starting Thursday on ESPN+ through July 13. The final table will air live on ESPN from Aug. 3-5 and there will be edited episodes shown on ESPN2 on July 21, July 28 and Aug. 10.
“The good news is Europe, Canada and the rest of the world are completely unaffected by (the tax changes),” Negreanu said. “Realistically, the only number you could see a potential drop in is U.S. players. And I do think the Main Event is such a special event, it supersedes any sort of tax thing because the payoff is so huge.”
Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on X.
