LAS VEGAS — A Fox Sports ad promoting its World Cup coverage and featuring Mike Eruzione has been pushing the narrative that another sports miracle involving an underdog American team can become a reality.
And, much like the 1980 “Miracle on Ice” in which Eruzione and a collection of college kids beat the powerful Soviet Union hockey team in the Olympics, the United States walking off with the World Cup trophy seems unlikely.
Just look at the odds.
The U.S. is anywhere from 40-1 to 60-1 at BetMGM Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings to win soccer’s most prestigious tournament, which opens Thursday.
Longtime handicapper Bruce Marshall isn’t sold on U.S. coach Mauricio Pochettino, who has experience leading notable European clubs Paris Saint-Germain, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea. Marshall also didn’t read much into the 3-2 victory over Senegal in a friendly leading into the tournament.
“I’m not that high on the USA team,” Marshall said. “I don’t care what they did (against Senegal). I thought Pochettino was a vanity hire. Listen, his track record isn’t as great as people make it sound. He’s had some great teams.”
The U.S. isn’t one of those, at least compared with teams favored to win the World Cup.
But money is pouring in on the Americans, bettors more than willing to gamble their green while watching the tournament through red, white and blue glasses.
If the unlikely happens and there is a soccer version of Eruzione’s miracle hockey team, the sportsbooks will take quite a financial hit.
“We’ve definitely seen a lot of patriotism being shown with USA being our biggest liability,” said Mark Bickerdike, Caesars’ head of soccer trading. “If USA get off to a good start and progresses, our liability is only going to grow. But, in general, we’re happy with the prices, so let’s lay what we think are the right prices and sort of go from there. Should USA make it to the semifinals and finals, we might be hanging onto our seats a little bit.”
No surprises among the favored teams
France and Spain are the consensus favorites to win the World Cup, both listed at +450 at BetMGM and Caesars. DraftKings also lists Spain at that price with France close by at +475.
Spain defeated England in 2024 to win the European Championship, and now La Roja has their sights set on adding to their 2010 World Cup title as well. But 18-year-old star Lamine Yamal and fellow forward Nico Williams are coping with hamstring injuries.
“I think Spain will win if Yamal and Nico Williams are OK,” Marshall said. “They won the Euros because those two guys flipped the whole thing. They stretched the field so much. They had so much speed on the wing. If one or both of them isn’t 100%, Spain won’t be quite the same team it was at the Euros.”
Should Spain falter, France could be right there to take advantage. Led by Kylian Mbappé, France will try to make it to the final for the fifth time in the past eight World Cups and win for the third time over that span.
Several teams have a chance
There are other countries that also could make a real run at the title. England, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal are 9-1 or better at all three sportsbooks.
“There’s no real gap between two or three teams and then everybody else,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said. “I would call it a pretty normal ladder for a future book. You’ve got a couple of teams at the top that are shorter prices. I think it’s balanced out pretty good. I don’t think there’s any clear-cut favorite here.”
The last ride for Messi and Ronaldo
Stars Lionel Messi of Argentina and Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal are almost certainly competing in their final World Cup.
Some bettors might be wagering in anticipation of one last great run by either or both of them.
“That always piques customers’ interest,” Bickerdike said. “That is arguably our biggest driver. Although Portugal have been playing fairly well recently, if you look at the likes of Spain, they’re probably a more in-form team.
“It’s obviously always the big debate: Who’s the greatest? Is it Messi or is it Ronaldo? It’s going to be their last World Cup, and going out on a high is sort of a dream scenario.”
Betting doesn’t stop after kickoff
In-game wagering is not new, but it has become more popular over recent years with the availability of apps that make it easier for bettors to take part.
That’s especially true with soccer.
“The in-game play is going to be really huge,” Avello said. “When you look at all the sports that we book, I think soccer percentage-wise has the bigger in-game play than any other sport.”
