Picks are locked in for Week 3 of the Edge Boost/Average Joe Contest here at VSiN.
With more than 22,000 selections submitted, we can get a pretty good idea of what the most popular public plays are. This contest includes both NFL and college football picks and has an 8 a.m. PT Saturday deadline.
That means I have time to write up the top NFL selections if you want to ride along with the “public” Average Joes or go against them.
We use lines from Circa Sports as of 7 p.m. PT Fridays and all contestants pick from those numbers.
Let’s look at the most popular spreads for NFL Week 3. These are the most popular games by consensus, so they may not be the most-picked sides by volume, but have the highest percentage of the spread picks on that particular game.
Saints -3 (94 percent) vs. Raiders (1009/1079)
This is an overwhelming choice for the most popular pick. So much so that with more than 1,000 picks on the game, only 70 contestants have been bold enough to take the Raiders. Apparently Joes believe that the 2-0 start for Las Vegas is pretty fraudulent. Either that or they love the Saints, who are 1-1 and are absolutely stepping down in class after playing the Lions and Ravens to open up the campaign. Whatever the case, New Orleans is an extremely one-sided look.
Jaguars -3 (87 percent) vs. Patriots (527/606)
Another field-goal favorite getting a lot of love, as the Joes are out on Drake Maye against good teams. At least that’s my guess for the prevailing sentiment in this game. Jacksonville is coming off of a tough loss to Denver, while New England got back on track against the Steelers, who are not exactly off to a blazing start in the Mike McCarthy era. I would caution the Joes and the piggybackers that the Patriots still have a great defense, even if Maye has his issues against above average competition.
Seahawks -7.5 (85 percent) vs. Commanders (464/546)
Surprise, surprise, another favorite among the consensus. The fourth pick in the popularity pecking order is also a favorite (Texans). Sam Darnold’s impending return coupled with Jayden Daniels’ wrong-way-facing elbow seem to create the perfect storm here for Joes to side with the Seahawks, despite the long travel to the DMV for an early kickoff. I’m not surprised to see a lack of enthusiasm regarding Marcus Mariota, but this does strike me as kind of a big ask.
Raiders/Saints over 43.5 (92 percent) (91/99)
As I’ve talked about before, Joes, and public bettors in general, are not really interested in taking totals. For example, this was the most popular side with 1,079 picks, but there are only 99 picks total on the total. But, the picks that are on the total are heavily-slanted towards the over. In following this contest since we started it, a lot of the games that have the highest percentages are pretty predictable. This one surely was, especially with Tyler Shough’s throwing volume thus far.
Jets/Lions over 48 (89 percent) (118/133)
The Lions and the over are usually a pretty correlated outcome for the Joes. That’s true here, as 71 percent of the picks – more than 400 – are on the Detroit side of the spread with the over as the preferred side by a wide margin on the total. I’m not enthused with what I’ve seen from the Jets offense so far, but the Lions have allowed 71 points in two games and have scored 62, so an average of 66.5 points per game probably does lend itself to trying the over.
Titans/Giants under 38.5 (88 percent) (169/191)
As usual, the Cowboys game has the most over picks by volume, but enough brave souls took the under in Brazil, probably with the questionable field conditions, to keep that game from being in the top three. Instead, Joes will trust Mother Nature with a windy and wet forecast in the Meadowlands for this one. Also, no Jaxson Dart for the Giants is expected to help the cause. That said, Unders with Jameis Winston’s ability to throw four TD passes and four pick-sixes are a bit scary.
