Early-season results have created value in this week’s college football slate, with Michigan State, FIU and Oregon State standing out as the strongest plays.
Michigan State -17 vs. Eastern Michigan
It was a Sparty Party in East Lansing last week as Pat Fitzgerald began his Michigan State tenure with a 10-point win over Toledo. Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, failed to build on its Week 0 win, losing at home to San Jose State after a difficult stretch that included long travel and blistering heat at USC the previous week.
EMU was a team I was down on over the summer, and nothing has changed through two games. Based on Game on Paper data, Eastern Michigan’s performances rank in the 27th percentile and ninth percentile in EPA per play. The Eagles were downright awful offensively against San Jose State, averaging just 4.13 yards per play with only two explosive plays.
Michigan State was something of a box-score loser against Toledo, getting outgained by nearly two yards per play, but the Spartans ran 82 scrimmage plays to Toledo’s 41. Fitzgerald leaned on the run because he could, with MSU attempting 49 rushes and 34 passes.
When called upon, Alessio Milivojevic was solid, completing 26 of 34 passes for 247 yards. Some of those shorter gains against Toledo, which lost a lot from last season but still fielded a top-10 defense, could become much bigger plays against this Eagles defense. San Jose State ranked in the 70th percentile in yards per dropback against EMU.
Pick: I’d expect Michigan State to start fast, build a lead and spend the rest of the game leaning on the run to salt it away.
FIU -10.5 vs. Buffalo
This is a big number for FIU and a game I discussed in Monday’s Opening Line Report, but the Panthers are deserving of it.
Buffalo was dreadful in its 21-17 win over Albany. Over 77 plays, the Bulls managed 351 yards and fewer than 4.6 yards per play. Albany had more explosive plays, while Buffalo quarterback Elijah Holmes went 26 of 47 for 189 yards.
Now the Bulls head from western New York to hot, humid Miami to face a Panthers team that deserved a better fate last week. FIU held South Florida and first-year head coach Brian Hartline to 208 yards in a 19-9 loss. The Panthers were minus-3 in actual turnovers and turned it over on downs four times, effectively putting them at minus-7 in turnover margin.
JJ Kohl went 31 of 50 for 301 yards. FIU didn’t run the football effectively, but it consistently found gains of 15 to 30 yards through the air before squandering drives. The Panthers averaged 5.08 yards per play to USF’s 3.71, and the defense was spectacular considering the field-position disadvantage. USF began drives, on average, at its own 45-yard line; FIU started at its own 20.
Buffalo coach Pete Lembo often has strong special teams units, but I’m not sure he has enough to work with offensively in this matchup. FIU has plenty of positives to build on from Week 1, and the heat and humidity should only help the home side.
Pick: I believe the Panthers can win comfortably and cover the number.
Oregon State +26.5 vs. Texas Tech
JaMarcus Shephard’s coaching debut was admirable. Oregon State went to Houston for an 11 a.m. local kickoff in the heat and was within one score early in the fourth quarter. All things considered, it was a respectable showing against a Houston team some believe could make waves in the College Football Playoff discussion.
Braden Atkinson, the starter for a borderline top-10 FCS offense at Mercer last season, threw for 376 yards and completed better than 60 percent of his passes. He threw for just shy of 3,600 yards at Mercer with a 34-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With more NIL investment now that Oregon State is back in a conference, the Beavers might have a fairly robust offense.
Oregon State gained plenty of yards but came away with only 20 points, so there are clear areas to clean up. Still, the building blocks appear to be there.
Texas Tech had only two explosive plays in a measured 33-10 win over Abilene Christian in Week 1. Will Hammond did what he needed to do after the Red Raiders expected Brendan Sorsby to be the starting quarterback.
This is not a great spot for Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have to trek to Corvallis before returning home for a massive Friday night Big 12 game against Houston. I’m not sure they’ll be looking to make a statement here, and Oregon State’s pass-happy offense under Shephard should give the Beavers opportunities, especially in the second half.
Pick: Covering a number this large feels like a big ask.
