Friday Night Lights: College Football Edition brings us five games in Week 1.
Of those five games, two of them have strong betting appeal for me, with a totals play in Toledo vs. Michigan State and a spread bet for Miami vs. Stanford.
Toledo vs. Michigan State (-10, 47)
5 p.m. PT
The new-look Rockets under the guidance of former Mercer head coach Mike Jacobs take on the Spartans under longtime Big Ten bench boss Pat Fitzgerald. Toledo is expected to start John Alan Richter, who was 17 of 25 for 153 yards with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio last season. He played more in 2024 going 43 of 67 for 497 yards with a 4/0 TD/INT ratio.
He’ll get his chance to run the offense, though Khamoni Robinson, who spent three years at Lenoir-Rhyne could be an option as well. Expect him to have some rushing packages after racking up nine scores on the ground last season.
Alessio Milivojevic didn’t have to wait as long as Richter for his shot, but he’ll get it here after relieving Aidan Chiles last season. Milivojevic finished last season with 1,267 yards and a 10/3 TD/INT ratio. He’ll be throwing to a new crop of wide receivers, including transfers from Notre Dame and Michigan, so we’ll see if he can create some more explosiveness for this group.
It will also be up to Fitzgerald and OC Nick Sheridan to figure out how to spark this ground game. Michigan State was 110th in the nation in rushing yards per game and 104th in yards per carry. That said, they did run for 4.5 yards per carry outside of Big Ten play. UConn transfer Cam Edwards had well over 1,200 yards last season, so he could be the answer.
Toledo’s defense was simply spectacular last season, but the losses on the field and off of it are heavy. DC Vince Kehres was a stellar hire by Jason Candle and he’s now the DC at Syracuse with Candle off to UConn. That’s a big loss, as the Rockets were second in yards per game allowed, third in yards per play, and fourth in PPG allowed (13.3).
There are unknowns at every level, but as I wrote in our 2026 College Football Betting Guide, DC Jahmal Brown led a group that had 42 sacks in 12 games last season and 96 tackles for loss. They are likely to be hyper-aggressive, which could burn them.
I like over 47 here as a result. Milivojevic had pretty good numbers last season and has a talented group of WRs to go with a very good back in Edwards. Mercer’s offense was great last season under Jacobs with 6.8 yards per pass and more than 3,800 passing yards. This looks to be an aggressive group on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Over 47
Miami (FL) (-24, 47.5) vs. Stanford
6 p.m. PT
Consider me impressed with Stanford following the first game of the Tavita Pritchard era. I was kind of underwhelmed by the hire given that the program got a big financial windfall from a very deep-pocketed donor last season and Andrew Luck should have a lot of pull as the GM.
He went to Pritchard and a first-time offensive coordinator in Terry Heffernan, so my skepticism was based off of that, coupled with the fact that Davis Warren was their QB target in the transfer portal.
Warren had more than 300 passing yards against Hawaii and the Cardinal racked up 6.8 yards per play. Even though the final score was close, it probably shouldn’t have been, as Stanford had 2.1 YPP more than Hawaii and ranked in the 72nd percentile in EPA/Play based off of 2025 numbers, while Hawaii was just average. Furthermore, Hawaii was in the 32nd percentile in Success Rate on offense.
Stanford’s yards per dropback in the first game were very impressive and that’s something that should help them at least keep things close against Miami. The Hurricanes do have a lot of hype with transfer quarterback Darian Mensah, returning running back Mark Fletcher, and a rich talent pipeline that should help them replace what they lost on defense.
Still, it’s a big ask of Miami to be efficient on both sides of the ball against a team that has gotten a chance to play and work out the kinks. It’s also a late game on the body for the Hurricanes, who are a long way from home in Palo Alto.
I don’t doubt that Mensah will be great this season and he has a ton of help on both sides of the ball, especially with offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson and defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, but it might take a little time for all of that to come together. At least when it comes to covering numbers this big.
Pick: Stanford +24
