Democrat leaders just inadvertently handed a gift to the socialists seeking to take over their party.
On Saturday, the Democrat National Committee gave final approval to the new 2028 presidential primary schedule. South Carolina will go first followed by Nevada. National Democrats refused to give Nevada the top spot, in part, over concerns about its slow election results. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia round out the top first six states.
If she runs, this schedule sets up beautifully for Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The conventional wisdom is that AOC is unlikely to do well in South Carolina, which has a large share of African-American voters. Black Democrats have been far more skeptical of socialist candidates than white, college-educated females.
A similar dynamic prevailed in 2020. Sen. Bernie Sanders won a close race in New Hampshire and blew out Joe Biden here in Nevada. The Democrat establishment panicked and rallied behind Biden after his second-place finish in Nevada. South Carolina gave Biden a decisive victory, which propelled him to the nomination and eventually the presidency.
But South Carolina was decisive because it was fourth — not first. In 2020, Pete Buttigieg won Iowa’s Democrat caucus. In 2016, Ted Cruz won Iowa’s GOP caucus. In 2012, Rick Santorum won Iowa’s Republican caucus. The first contest can narrow the field, but it doesn’t guarantee a winner.
Imagine AOC wins 15 percent of the vote in South Carolina. That likely won’t give her the win, but in a field of a dozen-plus candidates, she can easily claim momentum. That can be just as important as victory in early states.
Then, she goes to Nevada — which voted overwhelmingly for Sanders in 2020. Democrats held a caucus in 2020 but will have a primary in 2028. Perhaps the higher turnout would hurt AOC, but not necessarily. A recent poll found AOC is up in New Hampshire — with Sanders receiving 6 percent. She should be favored there.
New Mexico is an unknown. It will likely receive comparatively little media attention as candidates and the East Coast media focus on Michigan and Virginia. Michigan Democrats just selected Abdul E-Sayed, who’s attended DSA events, as their Senate nominee. Virginia is one of the states with the largest number of college graduates. That group is very sympathetic to socialism, which highlights the difference between credentials and knowledge.
Most national polls show Kamala Harris leading the field. That’s an artifact of name ID, not a groundswell of support. California Gov. Gavin Newsom will take any position on any issue. Expect his Democrat opponents to revel in pointing it out. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff would be strong general election candidates. Sadly, it seems unlikely that a majority of Democrat voters will back a Jewish candidate.
That leaves Pete Buttigieg, whose resume is somehow thinner than AOC’s. A dark horse candidate to watch is Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
A lot is going to happen in the next 18 months. AOC may face-plant on the stump, like Harris did. But as it stands now, AOC is well positioned to be the Democrats’ 2028 presidential nominee.
Contact Victor Joecks at vjoecks@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4698. Follow
@victorjoecks on X.
