In the past week, the war in Iran has seemed like a war again, after a long time in a gray area that was neither war nor peace. Now, with both sides shooting at each other, war is back. And, politically, the threat that the war presents to Republican prospects in the midterm elections is back, too.
Three U.S. service members were killed in Jordan last week, bringing the total American deaths in the war to 17. More than 400 have been wounded. On Monday, U.S. Central Command announced a 10th consecutive day of strikes against Iran. Fox News reported that President Donald Trump was considering a return to “full-scale war operations against Iran.”
To say this is worrying some Republicans running for Congress this November would be an understatement.
“I know of zero Republican strategists or campaigns that believe continued hostilities are good for our chances in the midterms,” said one GOP strategist, who asked not to be named. “Zero.”
Republicans can hope this strategist is overstating things. After all, the war, at least at this moment, is not the voters’ greatest concern. That remains the cost of living and the economy overall. Health care also ranks above the war in voter concern, as does immigration.
But the war is still a real worry, and, to the degree that voters link it to gasoline prices, which is one of the most important components of the real top concern — the cost of living — the war always has the potential to dash Republican hopes. Right now, in fact, gas prices are rising again.
If the polls are correct, most U.S. voters oppose the war. Polling analyst Nate Silver’s average of polls on the simple do-you-support-or-do-you-oppose question for the war is 58.3 percent oppose, versus 33.8 percent support.
The RealClearPolitics average of approval of Trump’s handling of the war is pretty close to that, with 60.4 percent disapprove versus 37 percent approve.
I asked the Republican strategist what he was seeing. “Two weeks after the war started, it was a tie,” he answered. “Now, it is more than 60 percent unfavorable.”
Obviously, that number includes a high level of opposition among Democrats, but it also includes an alarming — for Republicans — level of opposition among independent voters. “Independents are acting like Democrats on the conflict with Iran,” the strategist said.
The unpredictability of events around the war is keeping many Republicans on edge. The conflict is now in its fifth month, after Trump repeatedly promised a quick victory. Pressed about the length of the war, the president has occasionally noted that the United States was in Vietnam for 19 years. That’s about the worst possible answer, given the long-running disaster in Vietnam, but in any event, it does not matter today that this or that war was longer. The voters will decide whether they think this war has gone on too long.
The president has said, perhaps more times than can be counted, that an end to the war was coming very soon. He has said the Iranians desperately want a deal to end the war. Yet what happened, with the now-dead memorandum of understanding, was a long negotiation followed by a lopsided agreement that large numbers of Americans thought was not a good deal for the United States and which Iran began violating immediately.
So now the war is escalating again. If the previous months have been any lesson, it could be a bumpy ride. And for Republican strategists and candidates working toward this November’s elections? It’s a worrisome picture.
Byron York is chief political correspondent for The Washington Examiner. Contact at byork@washingtonexaminer.com.
