The Preakness Stakes has long been considered the ugly stepchild of horse racing’s Triple Crown, and the absence of the Kentucky Derby winner and runner-up from Saturday’s 151st edition will do little to change that impression.
A closer look, however, reveals that this year’s race measures up pretty well against its better-regarded brethren in terms of wagering, with a full field of 14 3-year-olds expected to go to post in a race that offers more bang for your betting buck than your typical Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
There will be no sweep of the Triple Crown this year, after the 1-2 finishers in the Kentucky Derby — Golden Tempo and Renegade — elected to bypass the Preakness in favor of the Belmont Stakes on June 6 at Saratoga Race Course.
But fans may get to witness history of another kind as trainer Brittany Russell attempts to become the first female trainer to win the Preakness and jockey Jose Ortiz tries to join Calvin Borel and Willy Simms as the only jockeys to win the Derby and the Preakness on different horses. And Ocelli will attempt to become the first maiden (a horse that has yet to win a race) to win the Preakness since Refund in 1888.
There won’t be too many fans who can say they were there if history is made though.
This year’s Preakness is being contested for the first time at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland, about 30 miles south of its usual home at under-renovation Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The move means a mere 4,800 souls will be able to attend the race, far below the crowds of 100,000-plus that regularly turned out for the Preakness at Pimlico prior to the Covid pandemic.
The race will still be run at its usual 1 3/16ths-mile distance, but the track configuration at Laurel means that the stretch run to the wire will be 1,089 feet — 63 feet shorter than the stretch at Pimlico. That could put deep closers at a slight disadvantage.
Fortunately for the rear-runners, the early pace figures to be lively, with nine of the 14 runners used to racing on or near the lead from the outset, including the 9-2 morning line favorite Iron Honor.
Local hope Taj Mahal drew the rail and appears likely to fight Napoleon Solo for early supremacy, with Crupper, Robusta, Chip Honcho, Iron Honor, Corona De Oro, Great White and Pretty Boy Miah all in close pursuit.
Chasing from a bit farther back should be Ocelli, Talkin, The Hell We Did and Incredibolt, with Bull by the Horns likely last in the early going.
The winning move figures to occur on the far turn, as the leaders begin to tire from their early exertions and the stalkers and closers begin to move up on the outside.
Being wide on the far turn and entering the stretch is not the quickest route to the winner’s circle at most racetracks, but it has been a formula for success in route races since the Laurel Park meet began on May 4. Through four days of racing, eight of 17 winners (47%) of routes have started from post 6 or higher.
Given the likelihood of a fast pace and a track favoring rallying horses on the outside, I am drawn to three horses as I attempt to run my Preakness handicapping streak to two following my selection of Journalism in last year’s race.
The first two are based on logic.
Form in the Kentucky Derby has long equated with success in Baltimore. From 2001 through 2025, the Preakness has been won nearly 64% of the time by horses who finished in the top six in Louisville.
I don’t think the change of venue will affect that statistic, which makes Ocelli and Incredibolt, sixth in the Derby, automatic contenders in my mind. Both are listed at 5-1 on the Laurel morning line. The other horse who ran in the Derby is Robusta, who finished 14th in the Derby.
The other horse that interests me as a potential winner is Talkin, trained by Danny Gargan and starting from post 5. The colt has twice hit the board in Grade 1 races – the Champagne at 2 and this year’s Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He’ll need to improve in his third start off a layoff, but picks up the services of top jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to help him do that. Best of all, he’s 20-1 on the morning line.
Favored Iron Honor, trained by Hall of Fame trainer Chad Brown, certainly could win the race. Brown is following the pattern he has used to win two previous Preaknesses with Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022: Skipping the Kentucky Derby after running in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
But starting from the 9 post with speed to his inside and outside means jockey Flavien Prat will need to work out a trip to avoid getting his mount caught wide on both turns. That’s precisely what happened in this Wood Memorial on April 4 at Aqueduct, when he contested the pace before fading to a well-beaten seventh in the stretch.
As for betting, I will put $10 to win on Incredibolt if he stays at his 5-1 opening odds or higher and use him on top in $2 exactas with Ocelli, Talkin, Chip Honcho, The Hell We Did and Corona De Oro, for another $10.
I’ll also play a 50-cent-base trifecta with Ocelli, Talkin and Incredibolt on top and throughout, with the other horses mentioned above in the second and third slots. Using program numbers, that is 2,5,12/2,5,6,7,9,11,12/2,5,6,7,9,11,12 for a total of $45.
Mike Brunker is a retired Review-Journal editor and horse racing writer who now spends a good amount of time lounging poolside with the Daily Racing Form.
