Duke enters the NCAA Tournament with injury concerns about two key players.
But that didn’t stop oddsmakers from installing the Blue Devils as the favorites to cut down the nets April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Duke is +295 to win the tournament at Caesars Sportsbook with Michigan the +360 second choice. Arizona is 4-1, while defending champion Florida is +650. No other teams have odds shorter than 10-1.
“We’re expecting a fairly chalky tournament this year, similar to what we saw last season,” said Patrick Berbert, college basketball trader at Caesars. “The NIL era has really widened the gap between the top programs and the rest of the field. From a betting standpoint, we’re projecting record engagement again.
“College basketball has been a phenomenal product all season, and the television ratings reflect that, as it was reportedly the most-watched regular season ever.”
Duke won the ACC tournament despite missing starting center Patrick Ngongba and starting guard Caleb Foster because of injuries and is riding an 11-game winning streak. Ngongba is progressing in his recovery, according to Blue Devils coach Jon Scheyer, while Foster “is going to be a little while still,” Scheyer said Sunday.
Duke is a 28-point favorite in its opener against No. 16 seed Siena on Thursday.
Michigan is without backup point guard L.J. Cason, who tore his ACL late in the regular season. The Wolverines, who lost to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament final, await the winner of the UMBC-Howard play-in game.
Florida opens the tournament against either Prairie View A&M or Lehigh. The Gators (26-7) won the SEC regular-season title but were upset in the semifinals of the conference tournament by Vanderbilt.
“Florida had some struggles during nonconference play, but really found its stride in SEC action,” Berbert said. “With a roster full of experienced players, they’ll be a tough out.”
Arizona enters on a nine-game winning streak after sweeping the Big 12 regular-season and tournament titles. The Wildcats are 30½-point favorites over Long Island in their opener.
“Arizona may be the most battle-tested of the group, given the schedule they’ve played and the consistency they’ve shown all season,” Berbert said.
Cinderellas to watch
UNLV fans might remember the name Bryan Hodgson. The former Arkansas State coach was reportedly a top candidate for the Rebels’ opening last year before he landed at South Florida and the UNLV job went to Josh Pastner.
In his first season at South Florida, Hodgson led the Bulls (25-8) to the American Conference regular season and tournament titles. South Florida is a No. 11 seed in the NCAA Tournament and faces No. 6 seed Louisville (23-10) in its opening game.
Louisville is a 5½-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook with South Florida +185 on the money line.
“As for potential Cinderella teams, South Florida stands out,” Berbert said. “Hodgson … has them playing an exciting style. They push the pace, shoot a high volume of threes and rebound well.
“From a betting perspective, Saint Louis and Miami (Ohio) are also drawing early attention as possible Cinderella teams that could make a run in the tournament.”
Saint Louis (28-5) is a No. 9 seed and a 2½-point underdog against eighth-seeded Georgia in its opener. No. 11 Miami, which went 31-0 during the regular season before losing in the MAC tournament quarterfinals, is a 7-point underdog and +240 on the money line against SMU in a First Four game Wednesday.
Early line movement
Alabama opened a 12½-point favorite over No. 13 seed Hofstra at BetMGM and the number climbed to -14½.
But that was before junior guard Aden Holloway was arrested Monday for first-degree possession of marijuana and failure to affix a tax stamp. The fourth-seeded Crimson Tide are now favored by 11½.
Other notable movement at BetMGM saw Wisconsin go from a 12½-point favorite to -9½ against High Point. Illinois went from -22½ to -24½ against Pennsylvania. Kentucky opened -2½ over Santa Clara and the line went to -4½ before it settled at 3½.
“We anticipate SMU-Miami (Ohio), Utah State-Villanova, High Point-Wisconsin, and the winner of N.C. State-Texas vs. BYU to be highly-wagered first-round games,” Berbert said.
Bettors at Caesars pushed Iowa State from -22 to -24 over Tennessee State, and UConn is a 21-point favorite over Furman after opening -19.
Contact David Schoen at dschoen@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-5203. Follow @DavidSchoenLVRJ on X.
