Well, NFL Week 1 didn’t go as planned in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Favorites went 12-4 straight-up and 9-6-1 ATS, while Overs were 9-6-1. As a “dog or pass” (and usually “Under or pass”) bettor, that wasn’t ideal.
For the uninitiated, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing.
Minnesota at Chicago -5
Both offenses looked good in their openers, with the Bears rolling over the Panthers 59-37 and the Vikings rallying behind Carson Wentz. I recommended Bears Over 9.5 wins (+115) and +325 to win the NFC North in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide, so I’m certainly bullish on Chicago under Ben Johnson.
Still, this line looks inflated after being Bears -3 on the advance line last week and as low as -2.5 at Circa before reopening at -5.5. It has settled around 5, and I believe the money has moved it in the right direction. I’m fine with either Kyler Murray or Wentz at QB for Minnesota. I expect a back-and-forth shootout that comes down to a field goal either way.
Best Bet: Vikings +5
Pittsburgh at New England -5
The Patriots led Seattle 10-0 in the third quarter before losing 13-10, while the Steelers recovered from an early deficit to beat Atlanta 20-13, helped by T.J. Watt’s 35-yard INT return.
New England faced the tougher opponent, but I still thought Pittsburgh played better. Five is also a pretty dead number in gambling circles, basically saying the favorite should be more than a field goal but not enough to move toward a touchdown. I would make this closer to 3.5 or 4.
Best Bet: Steelers +5
Cleveland at Tampa Bay -8.5
Both teams let me down in Week 1. Tampa Bay at least showed some life in a 33-27 loss at Cincinnati, but I couldn’t have been more wrong on Cleveland, which was never competitive in a 34-10 loss at Jacksonville.
Still, I’m sticking with my original handicap that Deshaun Watson has something left. I know I’m in the minority, but I’ll back him again getting more than a touchdown against a Bucs team that tends to play close games. It’s definitely a “plug-your-nose” play, but I expect Watson to have more success against a middle-of-the-road Tampa Bay defense.
Best Bet: Browns +8.5
New Orleans at Baltimore -8.5
I didn’t like Baltimore firing John Harbaugh, but Lamar Jackson made Jesse Minter’s debut a winning one with 324 passing yards and two total TDs in a 41-23 rout of Indianapolis.
I lost fading the Ravens with Colts +3.5, but longtime readers know one losing bet isn’t going to change my opinion. Baltimore’s defense still has a tendency to let teams stick around, and I think we have a live ’dog here with New Orleans getting more than a touchdown.
The Saints rallied to cover +7 in a 31-30 OT loss at Detroit, with second-year QB Tyler Shough shaking off a slow start to lead the comeback. Hopefully he starts faster here, but I’m OK with another back-door cover.
Best Bet: Saints +8.5
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers -6.5
The Raiders beat Miami 27-13 in Kirk Cousins’ Vegas debut, while the Chargers suffered Week 1’s biggest upset in a 26-14 loss to Arizona as 9.5-point favorites.
I wish I had Raiders +9.5 on the advance line, but that’s long gone. This reopened Chargers -7 and has mostly moved to 6.5. I’d still consider Las Vegas if we get the full touchdown again.
Best Bet: Pass, unless we get Raiders +7 or higher
Miami at San Francisco -13.5
I knew I should have taken the 49ers as divisional ’dogs in their 27-7 rout of the Rams in Australia. Now we’ll see how they handle the travel and getting their body clocks back in sync.
That’s not the main reason I’m taking Miami, though. I still love me some double-digit NFL underdogs, and even though I lost on the Dolphins last week, I saw enough from Malik Willis to give him another shot. Caleb Douglas and Malik Washington also stepped up alongside De’Von Achane.
Best Bet: Dolphins +13.5
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams -7
The Rams will try to rebound from their 27-7 loss to San Francisco, while the Giants opened with a 28-20 win over Dallas.
This line was Rams -8 on the advance line and reached 9.5 before Week 1. Even after the adjustment to 7, I still see value with the ’dog. Cam Skattebo ran for 81 yards and a TD, while Jaxson Dart went 23-for-29 for 230 yards and three TDs with weapons like Isaiah Likely and Malik Nabers.
The Rams should rebound, but I see the Giants keeping this within one score.
Best Bet: Giants +7
