On Monday, the Chiefs host the Broncos in a season-opening AFC West showdown.
Kansas City is coming off an active offseason, which saw the team moving on from some of its best defensive backs. However, the Chiefs also added a star running back in Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, and the team surprisingly has Patrick Mahomes ready for Week 1 after having torn his ACL last year.
Denver was also active after last season, with Jaylen Waddle the team’s most exciting acquisition. The Broncos also have a healthy quarterback, as Bo Nix has fully recovered from the two ankle surgeries he underwent after suffering a fracture in last year’s playoffs.
With both teams relatively healthy, this is a game fans and bettors are eagerly anticipating.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Denver is 6-2 against the spread against Kansas City. But the Chiefs are 3-1 straight up against the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium during that span, and I’d have a hard time fading them at home.
The advanced statistics from last season don’t necessarily suggest Denver was much better than Kansas City, even if the records do. The Chiefs had an expected points added per play of 0.042, slightly higher than the Broncos’ 0.035. And while Denver had a better EPA per play allowed (minus-0.058 compared with minus-0.008), the margin wasn’t that large.
It’s fair to question Mahomes’ health in his first game back, but there’s very little to suggest the Chiefs can’t win this one. The offense has the potential to be elite with Walker in the backfield. Kansas City hasn’t had a truly special running back in quite some time, and his presence should open up all kinds of options for a Chiefs offense that apparently added some new wrinkles during training camp. The secondary also appears to be in decent shape, with Nohl Williams and L’Jarius Sneed occupying the top two spots on the depth chart.
Andy Reid is 33-11 on the moneyline in September games since becoming the Chiefs’ coach. Kansas City has won those games by an average of 7.4 points. The Chiefs are also 85-25 straight up as home favorites under Reid. Meanwhile, Sean Payton is 6-12 straight up as a road underdog with Denver. The Broncos are also 1-5 straight up and against the spread during the first two weeks of the season under Payton.
Broncos vs. Chiefs player props
Courtland Sutton over 42.5 receiving yards
Many people seem to expect Sutton to take a significant step back this season. The Broncos traded for Waddle during the offseason, and the targets and yards have to come from somewhere. However, Sutton has been Nix’s go-to receiver and should be a major factor in this game. He is reliable in several ways and will face a completely revamped Chiefs secondary. The OptaAI player prop projections on the VSiN website have him finishing with 46.29 receiving yards.
Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction
While most of the bets and money appear to be on the Broncos, according to the VSiN betting splits page, the spread remains frozen with Denver favored by 2.5 points. That suggests the Chiefs are the sharp side, which is encouraging considering I already leaned toward Kansas City. If you look around, however, you should be able to find the Chiefs at odds ranging from minus-127 to minus-130. I prefer the moneyline at that price.
Bet: Chiefs moneyline (minus-127)
