On Thursday, the Melbourne Cricket Ground will host the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams in a major early season NFC West showdown.
Much has been made of how the teams handled the trip to Australia. The 49ers arrived a week early, hoping to acclimate to the time zone change before kickoff. The Rams did not leave until Tuesday and are attempting to stay closer to their normal routine.
There are reasonable arguments for both approaches. Spending an extended period in Australia might sound preferable, but many doctors say it takes roughly 17 days to fully adjust the body clock.
While the Rams’ approach might seem questionable, there is some logic behind it. I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the physical readiness of either roster; both medical staffs have surely put considerable thought into the decision. I’ll focus on the football matchup.
The Rams are widely viewed as the NFL’s best team entering the season. They added Myles Garrett, who recorded 23 sacks last year, to a roster that was already capable of contending for a championship. Los Angeles also brought back superstar Aaron Donald, who has not played since the 2023 season.
At some point, Garrett and Donald could form a game-wrecking defensive pairing. That will be especially frightening considering how strong the Rams already are offensively. However, we will not see them Thursday as Donald did not travel to Melbourne.
Even without Donald, the Rams are loaded. The Rams ranked second in the NFL in offensive EPA per play at 0.149 last season, while tying for sixth in defensive EPA allowed per play at -0.051. (EPA an advanced football analytics metric that measures how many points an offense adds or loses on average during a play or series of plays.)
The 49ers did not have that same balance. San Francisco ranked sixth in offensive EPA per play at 0.091 but finished 24th in defensive EPA allowed per play at 0.070.
A lot appears to favor the Rams, but I like what San Francisco has assembled this season.
The defense got away from the 49ers last year, but Nick Bosa is expected to play after tearing his ACL last season. San Francisco also traded for Osa Odighizuwa, a powerful defensive tackle who should immediately strengthen the front. There is a real chance the 49ers look dramatically improved on that side of the ball.
The offense should also be excellent. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are all back. The 49ers added a legitimate No. 1 receiver in Mike Evans. This offense has not had a true outside star in some time. With Evans on the perimeter, the 49ers should have one of the league’s more explosive passing attacks.
Of course, Garrett was not the Rams’ only major addition. Los Angeles also traded for star cornerback Trent McDuffie and signed Jaylen Watson. The Rams could have one of the NFL’s better secondaries this season.
Still, this is a difficult spot in which to trust Los Angeles defensively. Kyle Shanahan has not had much recent success against Sean McVay, but he remains one of the league’s sharpest offensive minds. More importantly, Shanahan has one of the healthiest 49ers teams we have seen in quite some time.
I expect San Francisco to move the ball consistently and show that it belongs on the same field as the Super Bowl favorites.
There is also a useful betting trend supporting the underdog. Teams catching between 3.5 and 10 points are 61-31 against the spread in Weeks 1 through 3 when they posted a completion percentage of at least 64 percent the previous season. That system is up 26.9 units with a 26.6 percent ROI.
49ers vs. Rams Player Props
Lean: Kyle Juszczyk Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Juszczyk averaged 14.5 receiving yards per game against the Rams last season. He is a reliable pass-catching weapon for a fullback and Shanahan tends to find ways to involve him when San Francisco has extra preparation time.
Our OptaAI player-prop projections have Juszczyk finishing with 12.62 receiving yards in this matchup. That represents a 35.5 percent edge to the over, making it one of the few three-star confidence plays on the prop projections page.
49ers vs. Rams Pick
San Francisco is one of the few teams with enough talent to match Los Angeles. The line movement is also notable: the Rams moved from -2½ to -3½ at Circa Sports, pushing the number through a key margin.
In a divisional matchup between two high-level teams, I’ll take the points and hope this is decided by a field goal — especially on a neutral field. And if you shop around, San Francisco +4 is available.
Bet: 49ers +4 (-110)
