On Wednesday, a Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks will open the 2026 NFL season. This one will be played at Lumen Field, where a strong atmosphere can always be expected.
In last year’s Super Bowl, the Seahawks cruised to a 29-13 victory at Levi’s Stadium. Drake Maye, then a second-year phenom, struggled after performing at an MVP level in the regular season. He threw two interceptions, lost a fumble, and finished with a Pro Football Focus grade of 29.9.
Heading into this Week 1 showdown, Maye will need to be much better. Given New England’s offseason, there are reasons to believe he will be.
The Patriots did not have enough weapons at wide receiver last year, so they added A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Brown has had at least 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in each of the past four seasons, and he is one of the best receivers in football. He is a big, physical presence, loves playing for Mike Vrabel, and grew up a Patriots fan.
Doubs does not have the same eye-popping numbers as Brown, but he could thrive in a new situation. The New England offensive line should also be better. Left tackle Will Campbell is healthy after limping through the end of last season, and the Patriots added a stud interior lineman in Alijah Vera-Tucker. Keeping Maye upright — and throwing from a clean pocket — should be easier than it was in last year’s playoffs.
Another reason the Patriots should have a better chance of scoring: Nick Emmanwori, Seattle’s jack-of-all-trades in the secondary, is likely to miss this game.
On the other side of the ball, New England no longer has to deal with Kenneth Walker III, who had 161 total yards in the Super Bowl. Seattle still has talent in the backfield, with Jadarian Price looking like a future star. But will the rookie be ready to shine in his first meaningful game? It is hard to feel great about that, and it will be interesting to see whether he has fixed his fumbling issues.
The Patriots also added defensive end Dre’Mont Jones, who had seven total sacks between the Titans and Ravens last year. That could make it easier for New England to put pressure on Sam Darnold.
Outside of Vrabel’s off-field stuff, the Patriots simply seemed to have a better offseason than the Seahawks. New England will also be out for revenge, and that is hard to ignore in a season opener.
Considering all of the above, it is hard not to take the points with the road team. I also love that our Circa betting splits page suggests New England is the sharper side. This opened at Patriots +5½ on May 15, but it is down to +3 at Circa despite the majority of tickets being on the Seahawks.
The Patriots are also 4-0 both straight-up and against the spread as road underdogs under Vrabel. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are just 8-10-1 ATS in home games under Mike Macdonald.
Patriots vs. Seahawks player prop
Drake Maye Over 226.5 Passing Yards (-117)
I’m playing Maye to go Over 226.5 passing yards in this game. Last year, the MVP runner-up averaged 248.7 yards per game across 21 games. And while he struggled in the Super Bowl, he still threw for 295 yards against this defense.
With TreVeyon Henderson banged up, along with the additions of Brown and Doubs, I see this being another game in which Maye will be asked to use his arm often.
Patriots vs. Seahawks pick
Seahawks (-3) over Patriots
I know the general consensus surrounding New England is that the team is due for regression because its schedule is much tougher than it was a season ago. However, I strongly believe the Patriots improved their roster significantly, and I am not sure Seattle’s depth chart looks any better than it did a year ago.
Prediction: I’ll take the points in what should be a competitive game, and I’ll also sprinkle the moneyline at +165.
