The recent history of the Heisman Trophy suggests it has become a quarterback’s award. Travis Hunter broke the mold in 2024, but he’s the exception — only five non-quarterbacks have won since 2000. Since the NIL era officially began in July 2021, four of the last five winners have been quarterbacks.
There’s another trend worth watching: Three of the last four winners have been transfers. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Fernando Mendoza all won after transferring from other power programs.
The preseason favorite also rarely wins. CJ Carr and Arch Manning currently top the oddsboard at most books, but if either wins, he’ll be the first preseason favorite to take home the trophy since 2014.
With that in mind, here are four Heisman Trophy favorite bets for 2026.
Darian Mensah, Miami (12-1)
Nobody’s raiding the portal quite like Mario Cristobal. Miami has turned Cam Ward and Carson Beck into NFL Draft picks in Shannon Dawson’s quarterback-friendly offense, and Mensah could be next.
Mensah threw for 3,973 yards with 34 touchdowns and only six interceptions last season despite being surrounded by underwhelming talent. He also earned an 85.0 PFF passer grade and showed an ability to attack every part of the field while making big-time throws under pressure.
Now he gets Malachi Toney, former Duke teammate Cooper Barkate, promising sophomore Joshua Moore, and an improved offensive line. Mensah has a real chance to put up huge numbers for a Miami team capable of winning double-digit games and reaching the College Football Playoff. That makes him my favorite of the shorter-priced options.
John Mateer, Oklahoma (25-1)
Mateer looked like a legitimate Heisman candidate early last season before breaking his throwing thumb. He returned against Texas in October, threw three interceptions, and never seemed completely right afterward.
He’s healthy entering 2026 and remains in Ben Arbuckle’s offense, which he knows extremely well. Oklahoma also has an excellent group of pass catchers and should feature an improved offensive line.
Mateer’s rushing ability separates him from many other candidates. Two years ago at Washington State, he rushed for 826 yards and 15 touchdowns. Those numbers probably aren’t realistic in the SEC, but his legs remain a major weapon.
With games at Michigan and Georgia and home matchups against Texas, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M, Mateer will have plenty of opportunities to create Heisman moments. Oklahoma just needs enough team success to keep him in the race.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (30-1)
Reed didn’t receive a Heisman vote last season, but he wasn’t far from the conversation. He threw for 3,169 yards and 25 touchdowns while adding 493 rushing yards and six scores for one of the nation’s best teams.
New offensive coordinator Holmon Wiggins served as Texas A&M’s wide receivers coach and co-offensive coordinator last season, so the offense shouldn’t change dramatically. Reed is also surrounded by a strong receiving corps led by first-team All-SEC performer Mario Craver.
The biggest concern is turnovers. Reed threw 12 interceptions last season, including eight over his final five games. If he cleans that up, his dual-threat ability and Texas A&M’s potential team success give him a real chance.
If the Aggies win at LSU on Sept. 26, they could be 7-0 heading into an October 24 road game against Alabama. That would put Reed squarely in the national spotlight and could create opportunities to monetize a 30-1 ticket.
Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State (75-1)
Mestemaker led FBS with 4,379 passing yards last season, adding 34 touchdowns and only nine interceptions during a brilliant freshman year. He followed head coach Eric Morris from North Texas to Oklahoma State, bringing several former teammates with him.
The jump from AAC competition to the Big 12 is significant, but Mestemaker is a future NFL prospect playing behind a better offensive line with talented skill players and complete familiarity with the offense.
The biggest question isn’t Mestemaker — it’s Oklahoma State. The Cowboys should score plenty, but the defense features only four players with starting experience.
Mestemaker doesn’t necessarily need to reach the College Football Playoff to contend for the Heisman, but Oklahoma State probably needs to win around eight games. That may be difficult in Year 1, but his statistical upside makes him worth a flier at 75-1.
