History tells us that Republicans have an uphill climb this November to keep control of the House — and perhaps the Senate. President Donald Trump isn’t doing them a favor with his latest tariff threats against Canada, this country’s second-largest trading partner.
After talks between the United States and its northern neighbor broke down over the weekend, Mr. Trump took to social media on Monday to announce a 50 percent tariff on all Canadian automotive and steel imports beginning Jan. 1. “Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years,” the president wrote.
This is on top of 50 percent tariffs that went into effect over the weekend on a number of Canadian goods, amounting to about 5 percent of the nation’s exports to the United States.
As for Mr. Trump’s accusation that the Canadians have been “ripping off” the United States, there’s little doubt that Canada typically protects certain domestic industries, presenting obstacles to various imports. So does the United States. But if the Canadians are rigging the game, they haven’t done a very good job. Trade between the two close allies involves $900 billion annually, but the U.S. economy dwarfs that of Canada.
Even on a per capita basis, American economic output exceeds Canada’s production by 57 percent, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Regardless, the timing of the White House announcement doesn’t help GOP congressional candidates hoping to buck historical midterm trends that favor the party on the outside looking in. Democrats — banking that voters will forget the halcyon days of
9 percent inflation and $5-a-gallon gasoline prices under President Joe Biden — have cynically made “affordability” a main theme of the current campaign. A trade war with Canada plays into their hands because Americans could see higher prices for some products. The auto tariffs, in particular, could become noticeable in dealer showrooms.
“This tariff is collected at the American border, from American car dealers and American buyers,” Barry Appleton, co-director and distinguished senior fellow of the Center for International Law at New York Law School, told CBS News. He added: “Doubling the auto tariff to 50 percent doesn’t touch Canada’s treasury. It’s paid by the American importer of record, which on most of these vehicles is an American dealer or manufacturer.”
No doubt, Mr. Trump is using the tariff threat as a cudgel to get the attention of Canadian officials and to extract concessions. There is plenty of time for further negotiations and a deal, negating the need for additional duties on auto and steel imports. In the meantime, however, that uphill climb just got a tad steeper for many GOP congressional candidates.
