The Dollar Tree 301 is this week’s NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It’ll be the 25th race of 26 in the regular season, so it is the penultimate race of the regular season. Next week’s race at Daytona, the Coke Zero 400, will be the final chance for drivers to qualify for the Cup Series Chase.
The track in Loudon is a 1.058-mile loop and was a twice-a-year stop a decade ago, but there has only been one race annually here since 2017. We’re back to a Sunday afternoon race after a Saturday night race last week. Due to some impending weather, NASCAR officials announced on Friday that they were moving the start of the Dollar Tree 301 up to 2 p.m. ET, an hour earlier than it was originally scheduled.
The race winners are Tyler Reddick (5), Denny Hamlin (4), Chase Elliott (2), Shane van Gisbergen (2), Ryan Blaney (2), Corey Heim (2), Ty Gibbs (2), Joey Logano (2), Daniel Suarez, Carson Hocevar, and Chase Briscoe. Wins no longer automatically qualify drivers for the playoffs, as the top 16 in the points standings, regardless of the number of victories, have a chance to win the championship.
Heading into the Dollar Tree 301, the playoff participants right now are Hamlin, Blaney, Gibbs, Reddick, Briscoe, Elliott, Christopher Bell, Larson, Logano, Chris Buescher, Hocevar, William Byron, Suarez, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, and van Gisbergen. Ryan Preece is 50 points behind van Gisbergen for the final spot in the Cup Series Chase. Ross Chastain is 63 points behind the cut line. Cindric, who picked up just his second top-five finish of the season last week, looks vulnerable as well, sitting just seven points ahead of van Gisbergen for 15th.
Last weekend was a big one for Logano, who picked up his second win of the season at Richmond in the Cook Out 400. It was his second win in four races, as he also won at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Even though wins no longer guarantee a spot in the Cup Series Chase, they are worth more points this season, so they remain extremely valuable. If we get a surprise winner this week at Loudon or next week at Daytona, we could have a bid stealer, to borrow a term from March Madness.
Perhaps Bell will be able to pick up his first win of the season here, as he’s got two wins, three top-five finishes, and four top-10 finishes in his six starts at New Hampshire. In 32 career races, Hamlin has only three wins, but 11 total top-five finishes and 19 top-10 finishes. Hamlin’s average finish of 9.9 is the best of any driver.
It might be too little, too late for Brad Keselowski, whose average finish of 11th is one of the best in the field. He has two wins in 25 starts, with 10 top-five finishes and 16 top-10 finishes. He’s currently 19th in points with 489, and the cutoff for a playoff spot is 567 points, held by van Gisbergen.
Those who are looking for more information can check out Steve Makinen’s weekly NASCAR race simulations in the NASCAR Hub over at VSiN.com. This week’s simulation has Logano as the top choice, as he is definitely coming in hot with some strong runs of late. Blaney is second in terms of projected finish, while Bell is third. The most appealing long shots, per Steve’s simulation, are Tyler Reddick, who won five of the first nine races and hasn’t had a win since, and Bubba Wallace, who sits 14th in points and may be aggressive this week. He finished 10th with the most laps led and won the second stage in the Daytona 500, so he has to feel good about his chances to hold his spot with next week’s race also at Daytona.
For those looking ahead, the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, at 2:30 p.m. PT, and it is the fifth race of 10 in the Cup Series Chase.
