Vegas veteran, contest proxy, and VSiN columnist Dave Tuley got off to a 4-2 start with his NFL Preseason picks for Week 1. With countless years of experience in the world of sports betting, Dave’s strategy has been to go “Dog or Pass.” That worked out very well in Week 1, as underdogs went 9-6-1 straight up and 11-4-1 against the spread. The Under was also 12-4, so we’ll see if Week 2 bucks those trends or follows suit.
Here are Dave’s favorite preseason picks for Friday and Saturday.
Green Bay at Denver (-6.5)
The Packers were blown out 28-9 last week, but Jordan Love is expected to play a little, and I’m OK with Tyrod Taylor. This line opened as low as 4.5, so I have no problem fading it as we’re up to nearly a full touchdown, which seems crazy for a preseason game.
Best Bet: Packers +6.5 or better
Washington at Detroit (-4.5)
The Lions don’t play their starters, but they were good enough to cover for us as 6.5-point dogs last Thursday. With Joshua Dobbs expected to play more, I see why this line has gone from Lions -2.5 to -4.5 (though 3 is not as key a number in preseason), but I’m certainly willing to fade this move, too. Sam Hartman looked good in leading the Commanders to a 20-7 win over the Dolphins.
Best Bet: Commanders +4.5
Baltimore at Minnesota (-3.5)
With the Vikings having Kyler Murray vs. J.J. McCarthy (plus Carson Wentz, who led the team with 14 pass attempts in the Preseason Week 1 win over the Giants), we get why the Vikings are favored here. However, even though our handicap of the Ravens’ win last Saturday boiled down to “even though coach [John] Harbaugh is gone, there’s still plenty of Baltimore players that are still around that are used to trying to win preseason games,” we’ll fire back with them here. I was expecting more from Tyler Huntley last week (6-for-7), but Joe Fagnano also played well (22-for-28, 224 yards, TD), and I expect the Ravens to be all out for the win again.
Best Bet: Ravens +3.5
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (-5.5)
The Buccaneers beat the Jets 24-16 last Friday night, and I wish I had seen that coming as 5.5-point underdogs. Jalon Daniels and Connor Bazelak played well and Baker Mayfield might start, so that’s why this line is so high, However, I have to think the Chiefs, who didn’t show much in their 20-12 loss to the Rams, will be a little more focused this week, so we’ll back them with the inflated points (bet up from -3.5) with Justin Fields and Garrett Nussmeier probably taking most of the snaps.
Best Bet: Chiefs +5.5
Dallas at Arizona (-1.5)
The Cardinals have scored 30 and 27 points, respectively, in their two preseason games, so that’s why they’re favored and a lot of bettors are looking to back them (at least until the regular season starts) However, Dallas still has a QB battle for second string behind Dak Prescott between Joe Milton and Sam Howell and they combined to go 20-of-27 for 201 yards and two TDs in winning for us last week, so we’ll back them again..
Best Bet: Cowboys +1.5
