Baseball is a high-variance game. What happens once a pitcher releases the ball is no longer within his control. A batted ball with an exit velocity of 110 mph might go sailing over the fence or might be lined right at the left fielder. The game is inherently volatile, which is why “what goes up must come down” and vice versa.
Now that we’re just over a month into the second half of the season, there are a handful of pitchers who are likely to experience some rougher seas as they sail forward, while there are others who have yet to find those choppy waters and are going to have to stay afloat while battling the waves.
When it comes to the conversation of sample size, some statistics reach what is called a “point of significance” very quickly, which is to say that they are stable. They are, in some ways, predictable. Other stats never fully get to a large enough sample size to level off and are subject to big swings over the course of a season. That can be true in smaller frames of time as well.
With that in mind, here are three MLB starting pitchers that you may want to look to bet against as the season goes forward.
Matthew Boyd (Cubs): Boyd has had a bit of a tough season to analyze thus far because he got hurt after just two starts, came back three weeks later for three more outings, and then missed another six weeks before returning for good on June 25. In his last start against the Cardinals, he allowed seven runs on five hits — four of them home runs. With just a 13.3 percent strikeout rate, Boyd’s 3.46 ERA in the second half is the byproduct of a 87.3 LOB percentage (or left on-base percentage). It is hard to strand runners without having a high strikeout rate, so the southpaw’s struggles in his last outing may just be a sign of things to come.
Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): Another statistic that we can use to isolate pitchers who are ripe for regression is called BABIP — Batting Average on Balls In Play. As mentioned in the intro, once contact is made, the pitcher no longer has any impact on what happens. The league average BABIP in the second half is .288. Think of BABIP like batting average without factoring home runs and strikeouts into the equation. Thus, in this case, a batted ball in the field of play has been a hit 28.8 percent of the time in the second half. Opposing batters facing Alcantara since the All-Star break have experienced a BABIP of just .196. With a 1.58 second-half ERA heading into his Wednesday night start against the Phillies, he’s a guy who will likely see more balls finding holes or patches of green grass in his next few starts.
Bryce Elder (Braves): Elder has been a godsend for Atlanta in a season where Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, and others have missed time. But, his fortunes may be taking a turn soon. He has a 3.34 ERA with a 5.34 FIP, which stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. As discussed, batted balls are highly volatile based on where they are hit. In theory, FIP encompasses the things a pitcher can “control” — strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs. Elder has an 18.8 percent K percent (strikeout percentage) in the second half, but just a .219 BABIP and has an 87 percent LOB percent. He’s the embodiment of both examples — a low K percent with a high LOB percent and a BABIP that just isn’t going to stay as low as it is, and a big negative difference between ERA and FIP is a good indicator of tough times ahead.
This doesn’t necessarily mean betting on the team facing these pitchers. With so many prop betting markets available, you could look at Alcantara’s Earned Runs Over or Elder’s Hits Allowed Over. You could also look at the opposing team’s Team Total Over Runs or something like that. There are a lot of ways to try and use this information to your advantage.
While the glass is half-empty with this group, we’ll take a look on Friday with the glass half-full and check out some pitchers who should be in line for better results over their next few starts.
