The number of people moving to Clark County for better job opportunities and quality of life is expected to drop dramatically toward the end of the decade, according to a new study.
Forecasts from UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research project Clark County will gain about 26,730 so-called economic migrants this year, rising to 28,030 next year before slipping to 26,320 in 2028. The number is then projected to fall sharply to 2,850 in 2029. It is expected to recover modestly to 5,530 in 2030 but remain below 10,000 annually through 2055.
Jinju Lee, an associate research director at CBER, said right now the county has better job opportunities and higher real wage compensation relative to the national average, which is a partial driver for economic migration to the county. She added compensation is a stronger driver than job availability for economic migrants who have moved here in the past.
“Economic migrants are individuals under 65 seeking a higher quality of life through better job opportunities, higher real compensation (adjusted for cost of living, taxes, and housing), and access to amenities,” she said in an email response to the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
Several factors appear to be driving the projected slowdown in economic migration, including declining interstate and international migration, stricter federal immigration policies and Clark County’s changing economic competitiveness.
While Southern Nevada has long attracted newcomers with relatively strong wages and job opportunities, real wages have struggled to keep pace with the rising cost of living since the inflation surge following the COVID-19 pandemic, and housing costs remain elevated for both homebuyers and renters.
CBER’s newly released population estimates show Clark County won’t reach 3 million residents until 2055.
The revised forecast from CBER projects the county will reach about 2.77 million residents by approximately 2040, pass 3 million in 2055 and approach 3.08 million by sometime around 2060.
The county’s current estimated population sits at 2,505,000, according to CBER.
After the county gains roughly 40,000 residents in both 2026 and 2027, the county is then expected to add around 38,000 residents in 2028 before annual gains are then expected to slow sharply, the new report shows. From 2032 onward, Clark County is projected to add only between 14,000 and 16,000 residents a year through 2060.
Contact Patrick Blennerhassett at pblennerhassett@reviewjournal.com
