The on-again, off-again peace deal with Iran is on again. President Donald Trump is taking a leap of faith that the pact will normalize relations between the United States and Tehran.
The details remain murky, but reports indicated that American and Iranian leaders on Monday signed an agreement intended to end hostilities between the countries. Stocks soared on news that Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz and the United States would end its blockade, potentially freeing energy transport.
Yet many of the more contentious issues — Iran’s nuclear program, in particular — are not fully resolved and will be the subject of future talks, which could ignite additional conflict. Iran would have to also meet various conditions before the United States will lift sanctions or consider unfreezing billions in frozen assets. That makes sense.
Other potential roadblocks remain. Iran is apparently still seeking to charge tolls on the strait, something the United States should never allow. And, at this point, nothing short of U.S. military action will prevent Iran from exploiting access to the vital waterway in the future for political or economic gain. And absent a provision that Iran’s proxies drop their attacks on Israel, the likelihood remains that the Jewish state will be forced to continue to defend itself, which will stress any peace agreement.
“I think they want to get it done,” Mr. Trump said about Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal. “This has never happened to them before. … We’ll see how they behave.”
Ronald Reagan famously said, “Trust but verify.” Any deal must incorporate this vital concept. Iran has historically failed to follow through on promises, instead simply stalling and buying time. Mr. Trump is banking on the fact that the damage done by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, along with the American blockade, will provide an impetus for Iran to adjust its actions accordingly. There are signs to support this.
“The war against Iran has been a limited war, and its outcome is likely to be inconclusive,” former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice recently noted in Journal commentary. “But it has achieved enough to produce a far better Middle East. The three-month military campaign degraded Iran’s ability to project power by significantly damaging its conventional forces, missile stockpiles and proxies.” In sum, she concluded, “Iran is far weaker today than it was in February.”
It’s a credit to Mr. Trump that the U.S. and Israeli military action was undertaken with minimal loss of life for the two countries and successfully inflicted significant damage, weakening Iran’s military capability and stunting Tehran’s efforts to become a nuclear power. But the success of this deal will hinge on Iran’s understanding that it risks additional attacks if it doesn’t take future negotiations seriously.
