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Matching up the regions en route to a Final Four

by Ed Graney March 17, 2026
by Ed Graney March 17, 2026
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West Region

* Outlook: Bottom line — this is No. 1 seed Arizona’s region to lose. The Wildcats are deep and talented and for the most part healthy. They are big up front and have one of the nation’s best guards in Jaden Bradley. Only one of two teams nationally (Duke being the other) that rank top five in offense and defense. Arizona is going for its first title since 1997. Purdue as a No. 2 seed could make a definite run to the Final Four if we see the Boilermakers’ that won the Big Ten Tournament. If it keeps such a level of defensive intensity intact, Purdue is good enough to stay with the Wildcats in an Elite Eight matchup.

* Potential sleeper: Arkansas. Can a No. 4 seed and the SEC Tournament champion be labeled such? To win the region, it can be here. Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas are a good enough 1-2 punch to lead the Razorbacks on a deep run through the bracket. Arkansas has a top 10 offense nationally. Question is, can it be good enough defensively to win four games and advance out of the region?

* Upset alert: High Point as a No. 12 over No. 5 Wisconsin. This one could really light up the scoreboard as High Point averages 87 points per game and wins by an average of 20 while the Badgers are a Top 5 team in 3-pointers made.

* Unsung hero: Jayden Stone, Missouri. A transfer from Detroit Mercy, he averages 13.2 points and five rebounds for a Tigers side that has three wins against Top 25 teams this season.

* Star to watch: Graham Ike. Gonzaga is a No. 3 seed and Ike one of the best players nationally. The Zags in an Elite Eight game against Arizona could produce a classic matchup.

* Did you know?: Miami, a No. 7 seed, has won 25 games this season after managing seven last year.

* Key stat: BYU star AJ Dybantsa is the nation’s leading scorer at more than 25 points per game.

* Pick: Arizona.

EasT Region

* Outlook: Weird. Duke is the No. 1 overall seed and just might have the toughest path to the Final Four. Some of that has to do with the health of Blue Devils, with starters Caleb Wilson (foot) out and Patrick Ngongba (foot) questionable. But some of it has to do with the East draw, where teams like No. 2 Connecticut and No. 3 Michigan State loom. This is a stacked region with Hall of Fame coaches. St. John’s, the Big East champion, was definitely underseeded as a 5. Several teams certainly have the firepower to emerge from the region.

* Potential sleeper: Central Florida. UCF as a No. 10 seed could benefit from UCLA fighting its own injury issues in the first round. The Knights will have an edge inside against many opponents and can win games beyond the 3-point line. A second-round matchup with Connecticut would be overly difficult, but when you can make shots like UCF …

* Upset alert: No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville. Speaking of injuries, the Cardinals have a key one of their own with star Mikel Brown Jr. The Bulls have won 11 straight. USF’s up-tempo style attacks from the opening tip. It also has 12 wins away from home this season.

* Unsung hero: Dominique Daniels Jr., Cal Baptist. You might have seen him almost single-handily eliminate Utah Valley in the WAC Tournament final. Daniels scored 23 points, hit consecutive 3s to tie the game with 1:16 remaining and then made a pull-up 3 to give his team a two-point lead with 14.6 seconds left.

* Star to watch: Zuby Ejiofor. The St. John’s standout was a unanimous selection as Big East Player of the Year and also picked up Defensive Player of the Year honors. He averages 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.1 blocks. He’s a monster at both ends.

* Did you know?: Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears Jr. leads the nation in assists with a 9.2 average.

* Key stat: St. John’s won 19 of its past 20 games against Big East competition. The Johnnies seem capable of a deep run.

* Pick: Connecticut.

Midwest Region

* Outlook: You might believe No. 1 seed Michigan is vulnerable after watching the Wolverines fall to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament final. Beware of doubting coach Dusty May’s team. It still has the nation’s top frontcourt and its best defense. Things aren’t as dominant as earlier in the season, primarily because of the injury to guard L.J. Carson Jr. (torn ACL). The bottom half of the bracket seems somewhat manageable for No. 2 seed Iowa State, which certainly has the depth and defensive prowess to make Michigan sweat should the two meet in an Elite Eight matchup. But watch also a No. 3 seed in Virginia. The ACC Tournament runner-up fell to No. 1 Duke 74-70.

* Potential sleeper: Miami (Ohio). What the heck? Let’s give the RedHawks some love after going 31-0 in the regular season. They have to first get by SMU in a play-in game and then face No. 6 Tennessee. Won’t be easy. Cinderella has her work cut out.

* Upset alert: No 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are shorthanded and Zips have a superb point guard in Tavari Johnson. Texas Tech hasn’t been the same since star J.T. Toppin went down with a torn ACL. This is the third straight NCAA appearance for Akron, so it knows what to expect.

* Unsung hero: Christian Hammond, Santa Clara. He leads the Broncos in scoring at 15.8 points a game in almost 30 minutes on average. Santa Clara is dancing for the first time in 30 years and as a No. 10 seed gets No. 7 Kentucky in the first round.

* Star to watch: Yaxel Lendeborg. Michigan. The main man on a team full of them. He is the Big Ten Player of the Year who does everything on the court at 6-foot-9 and 240 pounds. Something to watch: He turned an ankle late in the conference tournament final against Purdue but returned for the final minutes. If he’s healthy for the madness, this potential future NBA lottery pick is good enough to claim a Final Four MVP nod.

* Did you know?: Miami (Ohio) last earned an NCAA at-large berth in 1999, when it made the Sweet 16.

* Key stat: 44 percent on 3-pointers. That’s what Alabama star Aden Holloway — arrested on a felony drug charge Monday — has shot from distance this season.

* Pick: Michigan

South Region

* Outlook: Folks might label defending national champion Florida as the weakest of No. 1 seeds, but it could have a straightforward path to the Elite Eight, where No. 2 Houston should await. The teams met in last year’s national final. The Gators won 12 straight before being bounced in the SEC Tournament. There is potential trouble in the Sweet 16, where a Vanderbilt team as a No. 5 seed could meet the same Florida side it just beat last week. One interesting team is No. 3 seed Illinois, a Top 10 roster for much of the season. It would get Houston in the Sweet 16 if seeds play out. But think about this: If it’s truly Florida and Houston for a right to reach the Final Four, that game will be played at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. So the top seed will suddenly find itself playing what would amount to a true road game.

* Potential sleeper: Vanderbilt. The Commodores reached the SEC Tournament final before falling to Arkansas and have already proven capable of beating Florida in blowout fashion. Vanderbilt began the season 16-0.

* Upset alert: No 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina. The Rams are Atlantic-10 Tournament champions while the Caleb Wilson-less Tar Heels have looked more than shaky of late. This might not even be an upset considering how each team enters the tournament.

* Unsung hero: TJ Power, Penn. A former player at Duke and Virginia, this 6-9 junior forward scored 44 points in leading the Quakers to an upset of Yale in the Ivy League Tournament final. He was 7-of-14 on 3s. Not sure if Penn as a 14 seed has enough to take down Illinois — most likely not — but watching Power against the Illini could be fun.

* Star to watch: Kingston Flemings, Houston. Destined for the NBA lottery, this freshman point guard averages 16.4 points and 5.3 assists. On a team with one of the deepest rosters nationally, Flemings as a first-year player has been able to lead a side that went to the national championship game just last season.

* Did you know?: Nebraska, a 4 seed in the region, has never won an NCAA Tournament game

* Key stat: You want disruptive? McNeese State as a 12 seed averages 10.5 steals per game and ranks a top 15 team nationally in fast-break points.

* Pick: Houston

Contact Ed Graney at egraney@reviewjournal.com. Follow @edgraney on X.

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