Mortgage rates rose again this week after the federal government shutdown ended, giving investors access to economic data to guide their decisions.
Industry pundits and prognosticators today largely believe that, at least through the rest of 2025, nothing in the data is likely to move mortgage rates much.
Even though it was compiled before the September jobs report had been published, the 2-basis-point rise as measured by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey kept the 30-year fixed in the same 6.17% to 6.3% range it has operated in since mid-September. This is a level below the mid-to-upper 6% range it averaged through Labor Day.
What is this week’s 30-year mortgage rate?
The 30-year FRM averaged 6.26% for Nov. 20, up from 6.24% from seven days prior but lower than the 6.84% for the same week last year.
At the same time, the 15-year FRM had a much larger gain, up 5 basis points to 5.54% from 5.49% for Nov. 13. But it was still an improvement over the 6.02% registered for the same time in 2024.
“Mortgage rates have been shifting within a narrow ten-basis point range over the last month,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a press release. “This rate stability is a positive sign for both buyers and sellers, as it helps provide greater certainty in the housing market.”
How different sources are tracking the market
On Thursday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield, one of the benchmarks used to price the 30-year FRM, opened the day at 4.15% before dropping to 4.1% by 11 a.m. eastern time.
This followed a 4.13% close on Wednesday and 4.11% on Nov. 13.
Lender Price data on the National Mortgage News website has the 30-year FRM at 6.419%, down 1.6 basis points on the day.
Information from another product and pricing engine provider, Optimal Blue, as of Wednesday had the 30-year conforming at 6.24%, up 6 basis points from seven days prior.
Refinance interest rates as posted on the Zillow website for the 30-year are at 6.67%, as of 11 a.m. Thursday morning, down by 7 basis points on the day and 16 basis points from the previous week’s average rate.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Application Survey released Wednesday morning had the 30-year fixed rising for the third week in a row, up 3 basis points to 6.37%.
“Mortgage rates increasing to the highest level in a month led to a slump in borrower demand last week,” MBA President and CEO Bob Broeksmit said in a Thursday morning comment. “Applications to both buy a home and refinance were down, but still remained above where they were a year ago when rates were higher.”
Broeksmit added that the organization expects the 30-year to remain around 6.4% for the rest of this year.
What economists are saying is driving mortgage rates
After an initial rise following the October Federal Open Market Committee meeting, mortgage rates have traded in a relatively narrow range, said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow Home Loans. This is largely a result of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements saying a short-term rate cut at the December meeting was not guaranteed following the 25 basis point reductions at the two prior gatherings.
“With the federal government reopened and key agencies resuming data releases, mortgage rates could be more sensitive to incoming economic information as markets reassess their outlook on the labor market and inflation,” Ng said in a Wednesday evening statement.
This is why the delayed September report, released earlier on Thursday, is important. The government cancelled the October data release and the November release will also be delayed. This will be the final jobs data, Ng said, before the Dec. 17 and 18 FOMC meeting.
An early November Wolters Kluwer economists survey found that while 69% are predicting a December reduction, about 13% responded they don’t think the Fed will act January, a similar share said March and 5% declared even later.
After looking at the September jobs data, a mixed message between job growth and rising unemployment emerged, Sam Williamson, a senior economist at First American Financial, found.
With the uncertainty regarding a December rate cut as an overhang, mortgage rates are likely to stay close to current levels for now, Williamson said.
“Even so, they’re now sitting near one-year lows and have pulled back from about 7% in January, giving buyers a bit more breathing room,” Williamson’s Thursday morning statement said. “While there may be some short-term volatility, the current range offers a fairly dependable floor — enough to encourage more buyers off the sidelines.”
Potential borrowers should see this current stability as a meaningful opportunity, said Samir Dedhia, CEO of One Real Mortgage in comments on the Freddie Mac survey.
The focus is on the Fed December meeting. “While the Fed cut rates at its last meeting, it signaled a more cautious tone for what’s next, which led to a slight uptick in bond yields,” Dedhia said. “Still, most market watchers remain optimistic that another cut could happen, especially with signs of a cooling labor market and economic growth.”
