The transition from Week 1 to Week 2 in the NFL can be tricky for player props. There is a balancing act between what we saw in the season openers and how these teams have performed over the past couple of seasons.
Some of these defenses have changed their approaches, while some of these offenses have completely new philosophies. Luckily, we have a great tool at VSiN.com — our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections — that can help us fill in the gaps as we evaluate this week’s options.
Jeremiyah Love
Over 14½ receiving yards
Seattle had the third-best run defense in the NFL last year. Like a lot of elite run defenses, the Seahawks are susceptible to giving up receiving yards to running backs. First, it’s a way for teams to keep one of their best playmakers involved. Second, if teams aren’t able to run the ball, they are likely losing and throwing from behind.
The Seahawks allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs in 2025 at 37.6 per game and the 11th-most in 2024 at 36.7 per game. In their season opener against New England, Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson compiled 44 receiving yards. He also had 40 against Seattle in the Super Bowl.
In fact, going back to Week 18 of last season, a running back has cleared 14½receiving yards in each of Seattle’s past five games. That includes the NFC championship game, when both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams went Over this number.
Will that running back be Love? He is competing for snaps with Tyler Allgeier. The veteran Allgeier outsnapped Love 44-32 in Week 1, and although they both finished with two catches for 9 yards, Love had two more targets.
Love is the more dynamic playmaker, and I can see him being a better fit for third-down work in this matchup and clearing this number. OptaAI agrees, projecting Love for 17.52 receiving yards — a 7.6 percent edge to the Over.
Jonathan Taylor
Under 84½ rushing yards or over 16½ receiving yards
Choose your own adventure on this one. Last season against top-15 run defenses, Taylor averaged 82.2 rushing yards and 20.3 receiving yards per game. Kansas City ranked eighth against the run last season and held Denver’s running backs to 54 yards on 11 carries on Monday.
OptaAI projects Taylor for 66.43 rushing yards and 24.53 receiving yards this week against the Chiefs. This is as much a matchup play as it is a game-script angle. Kansas City is a 6.5-point home favorite, and if the Chiefs have the lead late, Daniel Jones will be forced to throw more.
Last season with Jones at quarterback, Taylor averaged 25.3 receiving yards per game, compared with 18½after Jones’ injury. I prefer the receiving route, for which OptaAI has a 21.8 percent edge against the number. But there is a reason OptaAI’s edge on the Under for Taylor’s rushing yards is also 20.3 percent.
Bucky Irving
Over 14½ rushing attempts or over 59½ rushing yards
The attempts prop really piqued my interest when I saw OptaAI had a 19.8 percent edge to the over, with a projection of 17.92. I personally prefer to go over Irving’s 59½ rushing yards, for which the OptaAI edge is only 5.6 percent, with a projection of 65.77. My only concern about the attempts prop would be if the Buccaneers are blowing out Cleveland and Irving doesn’t see the field as much in the fourth quarter. If Cleveland can hang around for most of the game and perhaps cover as an underdog, I think both props are very much in play.
Last season, Irving went Over 14½ rushing attempts in eight of his 10 games. He cleared 59½ rushing yards in seven of those contests. The Browns allowed the 11th-most rushing attempts (22.7 per game) and 17th-most rushing yards (96.4 per game) to opposing running backs. In Week 1, they allowed Jacksonville’s running backs to rush for 121 yards on 25 carries.
Irving outsnapped newly added Kenneth Gainwell 35-26 in Week 1 and had only 45 rushing yards because Tampa Bay was playing from behind early in its 33-27 loss. This time, Tampa Bay is favored by 8½points. If that number is correct and the Buccaneers are running the ball late in the game, Irving should have a nice day. Whenever I can correlate a big favorite with a running back’s rushing props, I usually feel good about it.
