Another exciting weekend of college football is in the books, and another data point has been collected and fed into my T Shoe Index.
I’ve been posting box score-adjusted results for each game. My proprietary formula translates the box score into an expected result based on the game’s key predictive statistics.
It’s still early in the season, so we have to be careful not to overreact to any one result. But these adjusted scores can help us identify teams that may be better or worse than their final scores suggest.
Let’s get to my early Week 3 college football best bets. Also, check out the VSiN website to see how my T Shoe Index lines compare with the actual lines.
Arizona State vs. Kansas
In perhaps the most misleading final score of the weekend, Arizona State lost 48-20 to Texas A&M. But my adjusted box score says the Aggies should have won only 28-21.
That’s a huge discrepancy for scoreboard watchers and a key reason I think the Sun Devils are undervalued this week against the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas’ adjusted score was even worse than its 38-20 loss to rival Missouri, with TSI indicating the Jayhawks should have lost 38-17.
Arizona State certainly did not play well enough to win in College Station, but the 28-point margin made its performance look much worse than it was. That is exactly the type of result that can create value the following week, especially when the market reacts to a final score without fully accounting for how the game unfolded.
TSI projects Arizona State as a nine-point favorite, with the on-field-only grades — based on a small sample, so use them with caution — making the Sun Devils 24 points better than Kansas so far. That is obviously a massive gap, and I would not expect the market to close it fully this early in the season.
Kansas also has not shown much through two weeks that would make me eager to buy low on the Jayhawks in this spot. I love Arizona State in this matchup.
Best bet: Arizona State -5½ (play to -6½)
LSU vs. Ole Miss
The prodigal son returns.
Lane Kiffin will make his much-anticipated return to Oxford, Mississippi, as LSU’s coach after a loud and tumultuous exit from Ole Miss. There will be plenty of emotion in this game that we can’t quantify, so I want to stick to the data we can analyze.
Both teams sleepwalked through last week’s games against overmatched Group of Six opponents. In Week 1, both won games with relatively tight point spreads.
LSU’s performance against Clemson, however, has been one of the most impressive of the season. Ole Miss’ win against Louisville was expected to be a one-point loss, according to the TSI box score adjustments.
That does not mean Ole Miss is incapable of winning this game, especially at home in what should be one of the week’s more emotionally charged matchups. But the Rebels may be getting too much credit from the market for the Louisville result, while LSU’s underlying profile has been stronger than the raw scoring margins suggest.
TSI projects the Lane Train as an 11-point favorite. The Tigers’ adjusted scoring margin has been eight points better than the scoreboard has reflected, while Ole Miss’ two games have played out basically as expected. The Rebels’ adjusted margin is one point higher than their actual scoring margin.
The bottom line: LSU remains a bit underrated by the market. Both sides will be emotional, but I think Kiffin will want to stick it to the Rebels and will have LSU ready to go.
Best bet: LSU -3 or better
