Rain and heat have been big stories at the U.S. Open thus far, but we’re into the second round now and there are some matches for Thursday that I really like, including some nice underdog moneylines.
Alexei Popyrin vs. Alejandro Tabilo
This is an interesting matchup, as Tabilo has undoubtedly been the better player in 2026. This season, the Chilean is 26-22 and has climbed to No. 28 in the ATP rankings. Meanwhile, Popyrin is just 11-19 at the ATP level in 2026, and the Australian has slipped to No. 130. However, Popyrin is far more dangerous than his ranking suggests, as he’s a former 1000-level champion and was ranked as high as 19th in the world in August of 2025. Popyrin also has a higher peak Elo Rating (1902.2) than Tabilo (1895.7), suggesting his best tennis is better than the Chilean’s best tennis. That means something to me when you’re talking about a +126 price.
Naturally, with Popyrin having this lousy of a 2026 season, you can easily say that he’s not capable of playing at that high of a level. But the Australian sure as hell looked like himself in a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 win over Grigor Dimitrov in the first round. The 27-year-old was doing solid work as a returner, which was huge considering how difficult he is to break.
If Popyrin can use his length to get a racket on a good number of Tabilo’s serves, that would be huge here. The Australian should also be able to take advantage of Tabilo having a very weak second serve. I also think Popyrin can do some damage from the baseline by attacking the Tabilo backhand with big, flat strokes. On top of all of that, Tabilo is very weak as a returner. That makes this a matchup Popyrin should enjoy — and one that favors the Australian in tiebreakers.
Bet: Popyrin ML (+126)
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Struff has proven to be a tough out at the majors, as evidenced by a run to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon a few months ago. Struff also made the fourth round of last year’s U.S. Open. So, even with this being a bit of a tough year for the German, it’s fair to expect him to raise his level. We already saw him do it in a straightforward 6-4, 6-3, 6-3 win over Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the first round, and I now like him to take out Cerundolo.
For as talented as Cerundolo is, the Argentine has been awful since his title run at Queen’s Club. He’s just 2-4 since lifting that trophy, and some of the losses were no-shows. I also wasn’t impressed with Cerundolo’s 6-4, 6-3, 7-5 win over a banged-up Filip Misolic in the first round here.
This just feels like a match in which Struff should be able to put his head down and rack up holds, serving up unreturnables or coming to the net to put points away. Then, with his aggressive style of play from the baseline, he’ll look to take advantage of any shaky moments from his opponent. In the end, the contrast in styles — and the straightforward nature of Struff’s game — is worthy of a shot in the +140 range.
Bet: Struff ML (+143)
Dalibor Svrcina vs. Luciano Darderi
This is more of a bet against Darderi than a play on Svrcina. The Italian isn’t far removed from a 6-1, 6-0 loss to Botic van de Zandschulp in Winston-Salem, where he was desperately trying to find some hard-court form. Darderi is just 17-37 in main-draw hard-court matches at the ATP level, so the big forehand that has been such a weapon on clay really hasn’t translated. At some point, we should see that change. But for right now, it’s hard to get on board with him being a favorite in a semi-even best-of-five match on the surface.
Tactically, Svrcina also happens to make for a tough matchup for Darderi. Svrcina is a very good returner, so he can definitely make Darderi uncomfortable on serve. Svrcina also has quick groundstrokes and an ability to take the ball early, which should allow him to keep Darderi on his toes for most of this match.
Svrcina has also played well at this venue in the last week. He had to go through qualifying, so he got three matches to get comfortable with the conditions.
Bet: Svrcina ML (+128)
